14 September 2016: There is a trio in the Atlantic!

Yesterday morning residents of Southeast Florida woke-up to find a dark sky and a wall of storm clouds covering the eastern horizon, rather than  the bright orange, red and yellows signaling the sunrise in paradise.  Satellite images revealed this bleak panorama was the view along the full length of Florida’s east coast as one of the tropical waves we’ve been monitoring over the weekend had crept close to shore, and appeared to be strengthening and getting better organized  as the day progressed.

Projected track for Tropical Storm JULIA as on 14 September 2016
Projected track for Tropical Storm JULIA as on 14 September 2016

This tropical wave actually moved inland near  Daytona generating copious rain over central and northern Florida, and all over offshore waters all the way into Georgia and the Carolinas. Gusty winds, rain and thunderstorms were the norm for most of northeastern Florida by nightfall yesterday. Further observations and additional data continue to show the potential for cyclonic development, suggesting Tropical Storm JULIA was about to develop around 10:00 P.M. last night. Sure enough, the 11:00 P.M. advisory from the National Hurricane Center confirmed Tropical Storm Julia was active over northeastern Florida.

Satellite image of 14 September 2016 showing tropical storm JULIA, in visible light, nearing Savannah, Georgia, while it generated copious rain over a large region and offshore waters.
Satellite image of 14 September 2016 showing tropical storm JULIA, in visible light, nearing Savannah, Georgia, while it generated copious rain over a large region and offshore waters.

This morning, 14 September 2016, we have a trio of storms active over the north Atlantic basin. Tropical storm JULIA, the tenth-named tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season, moving inland toward Savannah, Georgia, joins Tropical Storm IAN now tracking NE over the central Atlantic.

GOES EAST infrared satellite image of 14 September 2016 showing tropical storms IAN and JULIA, and a strong tropical wave over the Cape Verde Islands, which maysoon  become the newest tropical cyclone of the season
GOES EAST infrared satellite image of 14 September 2016 showing tropical storms IAN and JULIA, and a strong tropical wave over the Cape Verde Islands, which maysoon become the newest tropical cyclone of the season

Farther to the south and east a large tropical wave over the Cape Verde Islands appears to be growing stronger and better organized, showing clear cyclonic tendencies, while it is being investigated by the National Hurricane Center for possible further development. Analysis of recent satellite imagery suggest we may already have a tropical depression over the Cape Verdes, the ‘seed’ for yet another tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. All interests around the basin need to monitor this one closely, as well as tropical waves over Equatorial Africa as we have already entered what historically is the peak of the annual Atlantic hurricane season.

Elsewhere, a compact hurricane ORLENE is moving away from Mexico toward the Central Pacific. Farther west, Super-typhoon MERANTI is approaching landfall in China, a strengthening typhoon MALAKAS is near the Philippines making a turn to the NW that will bring it near Taiwan, while several strong and potentially cyclonic tropical waves populate the waters between the Central Pacific and the Philippines Sea. There is plenty of fuel for potential tropical cyclone development in that region over the next few days.

While the northern hemisphere tropics boil with activity,we must all remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!

9 September 2016: Tropical North Atlantic is Loaded!

This Friday 9 September marks the 101st day of the 183-day annual ‘official’ Atlantic hurricane season, which means 45% of the season still remains ahead of us including those days in September that historically have generated most of the hurricane activity. Only Mother Nature knows how many days the actual hurricane season will be comprised of in the Atlantic, but at least in ‘official’ terms counting from June 1, the start of the season, 55% of the Atlantic season is over.

Infrared GOES EAST satellite image late on 8 September 2016 shows a strong tropical wave approaching the western Bahamas, another one over the Virgin Islands, and a rather large one along hurricane alley
Infrared GOES EAST satellite image late on 8 September 2016 shows a strong tropical wave approaching the western Bahamas, another one over the Virgin Islands, and a rather large one along hurricane alley

What’s happening on this 101st day of the season? A look at satellite imagery shows at least three tropical waves active between ‘hurricane alley’ and the Bahamas, and several more moving westward across Equatorial Africa and the Eastern Atlantic waters south of the Cape Verde Islands. Any one of these tropical waves must be viewed as a ‘seed’ for potential cyclonic development in days to come.

Infrared satellite image of 8 September 2016  showing at least eight tropical waves, of varying sizes and complexities, between eastern Equuatorial Africa and Eastern Atlantic waters south of the Cape Verde Islands
Infrared satellite image of 8 September 2016 showing at least eight tropical waves, of varying sizes and complexities, between eastern Equatorial Africa and Eastern Atlantic waters south of the Cape Verde Islands

From where we stand in our neck-of-the-woods, here in Southeast Florida, it appears the entire system is loaded. Consequently, it behooves us to monitor each of these tropical waves closely over coming days, remaining alert and being prepared!

Infrared GOES WEST satellite image from late 8 September 2016 showing several tropical waves and cells of disturbed weather moving in the Eastern-east Pacific waters off the coasts of Panama-central America and Southern Mexico
Infrared GOES WEST satellite image from late 8 September 2016 showing several tropical waves and cells of disturbed weather moving in the Eastern-east Pacific waters off the coasts of Panama-central America and Southern Mexico

A quick look at the Eastern North Pacific basin shows a similar situation of several tropical waves, and cells of disturbed weather, moving from the northern region of South America, off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico and into the waters of the Central Pacific. Any one of these becomes a seed for potential cyclonic development in a region that has already generated fourteen-named tropical cyclones so-far in 2016!

Keep watching! No surprises needed! MITIGATE, MITIGATE and MITIGATE!

Vulnerability Assessnebt & Mitigation

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