The Calm after (..before?) the Storm

Atlantic-wide satelite view for the aviation industry on 30 September 2010 at 1115 EST

  On this 30 September 2010 South Florida is enjoying a bright sunny day with temperatures in the mid-80s and only a 20% chance of rain, in the form of scattered showers if they come; quite a contrast with the previous two days when a blanket of rain covered the region courtesy of Tropical Depression #16/tropical Storm NICOLE.

So, is this the calm after the storm? Can we now relax and enjoy our great tropical weather on this early fall day? Or is this a case of “enjoy it while you can” because there is more coming our way? Perhaps we should call this the “calm BEFORE the storm”, for if we look east toward ‘Hurricane Alley’, the eastern Atlantic and equatorial Africa and beyond, we will see plenty of tropical activity and fuel for potential tropical cyclone formation.

Color-enhanced infrared satellite view on 30 September 2010 at 1145 RST showing a large region of disturbed weather consisting of two interacting tropical waves riding Hurricane Alley approaching the Lesser Antilles. The environment is favorable for further development.

  There are in fact two interacting tropical waves in Hurricane Alley now approaching the Lesser Antilles, which together cover approximately 2.0 million square miles of the Atlantic. This large area of disturbed weather appears to be getting better organized as it moves westward in an environment of warn water and favorable winds that may lead to further development in the next day or so.

Behind this large region of disturbed weather there is another tropical wave just south of the Cape Verde Islands, several more over equatorial Africa and a few more over the Indian Ocean, all moving westward toward Hurricane Alley. It appears the belt of tropical activity is alive and well as we approach the last third of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

  Closer to our South Florida neck-of-the-woods out to sea and still in the Caribbean, but affecting most of the USA eastern seaboard and Canada, and all the way across the Atlantic into western Europe there is plenty of moisture and disturbed weather left over from Nicole and associated with an area of low pressure riding above the Gulf Stream current affecting a huge coastal region with rain and disturbed weather.

We must remain vigilant and monitor the Caribbean, Hurricane Alley, equatorial Africa and beyond for any signs of tropical cyclone activity that may develop and come our way. Pay attention! Be prepared!! MITIGATE!!!