The Tropics are Growing Restless!

Take a look a the central Atlantic ocean north of the equator, just to the southeast of Bermuda, and today 20 April 2011 you will see a huge area of storms moving in the general direction of mainland USA!!

for the aviation industry on 20 April 2011″]
The GOES [Geostationary]  satellite  over the eastern USA captured an image of a rather large region of disturbed weather covering some 2.5 million square kilometers over the central Atlantic ocean just southeast of Bermuda and northeast of the Virgin Islands.  With so much extreme weather activity causing tornado and flood damage in several states over the past couple of days and capturing our collective attention, it’s been easy to forget that with the advent of spring the waters north of the equator have warmed considerably over the past 30 – 60 days, and  we are seeing more and more signs that the tropics are growing restless as we the “official” start of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is less that six weeks away.
 
Color-enhanced infrared GOES satellite image [NOAA] on 20 April 2011 showing what could well be the first ‘salvo’ of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.Satellite imagery, such as the color-enhanced infrared GOES satellite photo taken earlier this afternoon of 20 April 2011, clearly show a region of low pressure over the central north Atlantic  where rain and storm activity are being generated over a large area while the system moves in a generally westward direction.  This satellite image also shows the areas of extreme weather that have been attacking large regions of the USA, causing death and damage over the last couple of days. Also shown are areas of storm activity over northern South America, Panama and Central America. These are all signs that as surface waters and the atmosphere to the north of the equator continue to warm up  as spring takes hold of the northern hemisphere, tropical cyclogenesis can not be too far off even if the start of the “official” 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is 5-/12 weeks away. Other signs of impending tropical cyclonic activity and potential contributos to the same can be seen on other satellite images such as the ones that follow:
Full Earth disk composite satellite image of the western hemisphere on 20 April 2011. The full Earth’s disk satellite image [NASA] on the left show once again the “belt” of tropical activity girdling the Earth around the equator as it slowly migrates northward. On the eastern [far right] extreme of the “belt” there are alreday signs of tropical waves emerging from over equatorial Africa over the eastern Atlantic to the south of the Cape Verde islands. So, here we see the outline of what is generally known as “hurricane alley”, lots of tropical activity near the equator, “pulses” of tropical waves moving westward over equatorial Africa toward the eastern Atlantic, and to top it all off, a large region of low pressure and disturbed weather in the middle of the Atlantic. It is clear the tropics are growing restless and tropical cyclones can not be too far off. Not seen here, but shown in additional images below, are the increasingly warmer waters of the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf and eastern Pacific, and the lingering La Nina [ENSO] off the coast of Peru, which are all potential contributign factors to cyclogenesis in the Atlantic in 2011.Map of sea surface temperatures on 19 April 2011.
This satellite-based [NOAA] temperature map of sea surface waters on 19 April 2011, already shows surface waters at or above 30 Celsius along “hurricane alley”, parts of the Caribbean and the Gulf and also off Central America and Mexico in the eastern Pacific. Also shown are the much cooler waters of the coast of Peru indicating the lingering effects of the La Nina event that was active in 2010.
Soon, during the National Hurricane Conference and the soon to follow Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference both NOAA National Hurricane Center and the folks at Colorado State University will issue their predictions for tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin for 2011 and then Mother Nature will do what it pleases and humankind will be divided into suffering bystanders or active participants who manage their risk and mitigate the impacts of hurricanes in their own communities.
For starters there is that large glub of disturbed weather over the central north Atlantic, which may develop further or just blow over, but which nevertheless warrants close monitoring. Then we already have the ‘belt’ of tropical activity circling the globe around the equator, the initial waves of storms coming over equatorial Africa toward the eastern Atlantic and “hurricane alley”, increasingly warmer surface waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf and eastern Atlantic, and weakened but still lingering La Nina event off the coast of Peru. So many of the potential triggers or contributors to cyclogenesis in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins are already in place or being assembled. Let us see what Mother Nature has in store for us. Let us pay attention. Be prepared! MITIGATE!!

Seven Days of Earthquake Activity.

On 8 April 2011 as of 16:28 UTC (12:28 p.m. DST) 261 earthquakes magnitude 2.5 or higher had hit somewhere in the world over the past seven days or 168 hours, which means planet Earth gets one of these mag. 2.5 or higher seisms every 38 minutes as an average. These earthquakes include the magnitude 7.1 aftershock off the coast of Japan’s Honshu island, the 6.5 magnitude in the state of Veracruz, Mexico and a 5.0 and 5.8 shocks in the western Caribbean near the Swan Islands north of Honduras. This seismic activity is reflected on the world map below:

World map from the USGS showing earthquake activity over a moving period of seven days or 168 hours.
In reality there is a lot more shaking on Earth that shown on this map. If we were to count all earthquakes magnitude 1.0 or higher we would be talking of at least one earthquake per minute or perhaps even more, and if we took the time to count all measurable natural seismic movements of earth the annual total would exceed 1.0 million, such is the nature of the planet we inhabit. While this appears to be quite a large number, averaging 1 shock every 30 seconds or so, what happens is that the vast majority of these temblors are only measured by instruments as anything below a 2.5 magnitude is not felt by most humans, also quite a bit of this shaking is centered in uninhabited regions or in the oceans. 
What is important is to concentrate of where those earthquakes magnitude 2.5 or higher actually hit and with what frequency, paying close attention to earthquakes magnitude 5.0 or higher as these are the ones that account for most of the loss of life, injuries and physical damage that we see in the aftermath of major impacts such as the 9.0 that hit off the coast of Japan’s Honshu island on 11 March 2011, or the 8.9 that hit off the coast of Chile in 2011 and the earlier devastating earthquake in Haiti also in 2010.
The United States Geologic Survey (USGS) keeps track of earthquakes magnitude 2.5  or higher on a worldwide basis through a number of data sets. One of these data sets keeps a running tab of all mag. 2.5 or higher earthquakes taking place worldwide over the last 168 hours (7 days), and it is constantly updated.
By reviewing this running-168 hour data set on 8 April 2011 at 12:28 p.m. DST we discovered the following:
* A total of 34 earthquakes magnitude 5.0 or higher have hit somewhere on Earth in the past 168 hours;
* Of these 34 shocks, 5 were magnitude 6.0 or higher and one of them was a magnitude 7.1 in Japan, which triggered a new tsunami warning in that region;
* A total of 82 earthquakes hit the United States and an additional 52 hit Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands;
* Alaska was has been hit by 49 magnitude 2.5 or stronger earthquakes over the last 7 days, while California suffered 11 hits, Hawaii 3 and Arkansas 12. All of the shocks in Arkansas  have taken place over the last 24 hours within 50+ kilometers of Little Rock.
USGS Map of North America showing earthquakes magnitude 2.5 or higher that have hit over the last 168 hours as of 11:21 a.m. DST. Of interest for the North America region is the seismic activity that has taken place along or near the boundary between the Caribbean and North America tectonic plates, which has generated at least 4 shocks magnitude 5.0 or higher including a 6.5 earthquake in the stateof Veracruz in Mexico, and both a 5.0 and 5.8 in the western Caribbean to the north of Honduras hear the Swan Islands and close to 60 hits total over the same period. Especially active has been the eastern portion of the tectonic plate boundary near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands where at least 52 magnitude 2.5 or higher shocks have taken place in the last 7 days, or almost 8 per day. The main concern with this specific activity relates to the fact that it was this seismic fault, at the Caribbean-North America tectonic plate boundary, that generated the catastrophic earthquake in Haiti in early 2010.USGS earthquake map showing the area where a 5.0 and 5.8 magnitude earthquakes hit on 7 April 2011 along the boundary between the North America and Caribbean tectonic plates.

 This 168 hours of earthquake activity are “par for the course” on planet Earth and should come as no surprise to any one. What should be surprising to all is the fact that we still see catastrophic effects, in terms of loss of life and structural and physical damages as well as indirect and consequential effects after each major impact. Also surprising is the disparity of damage and loss of life between different countries. It is clear that humankind still has a lot of work to do in preparing for and in mitigating the impact of major earthquakes.

It is also clear that radical paradigm changes are needed with respect to the way we establish design criteria, and the methods of construction, risk assessment and mitigation planning we employ in earthquake vulnerable regions. Along these lines, our focus on earthquakes is driven by recent catastrophic events including the major one in Japan and the realization that there is a lot whole of shaking taking place every day on planet Earth, but it is clear that the same concerns and needs exists when it comes to other natural hazards such as tropical cyclones, floods, drought and major weather storms, as well as the slow, but inexorably and incrementally acting consequences of global climate change!