2011 Hurricane Season is Here!

Several storm and rain cells are active of the 4th day of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season

 On the 4th day of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season and 20th day of the eastern Pacific season, a color-enhanced infrared image from the GOES [geostationary] satellite [courtesy of NASA] shows several active tropica cells in the central Atlatinc, the Caribbean, the Gulf, the eastern east Pacific off the coast of Mexico and Central America and over the northern regions of Colombia and Venezuela.

#1 on the satellite image taken on 4 July 2011 at 14:45 DST identifies an area of low pressure to the southeast of Jamaica where heavy precipitation and storms are taking place. This cell is being monitored by NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center [TPC] for potential tropical cyclone development over the next 36 – 48 hours. The system is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of Cuba, Haiti, the Domincan Republic, Jamiaca and quite possibly Grand Cayman and portions of Honduras and NIcaragua over the next day or so.

On the eastern east Pacific, where the official 2011 Hurricane season got off on 15 May 2011, #2 on the satellite image identifies another cell of disturbed weather off the coast of Central America and Mexico associated with a nucleus of low pressure that may warrant monitoring for potential further development over the next 24-48 hours. This region. where surface sea waters are quite warm [above 30 celsius], of the eastern Pacific saw numerous similar cells during 2010 quite possibly influenced by the ongoing La Nina event off the coast of Peru in the Pacific, and the pattern appears to be continuing in 2011.

Over in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico there is a small area of disturbed weather that appears to be getting better organized and may warrant some monitoring.

Also seen on the NASA satellite image are numerous cells of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic and the northern regions of Colombia and Venezuela. Both these areas have see several flashes of disturbeb weather over the past few weeks in a pattern that is a repeat of activity in the same regions during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Based of these flashes of disturbed weather and the continuously warmer surface waters in the larger basin, it would appear it may not be too long before cyclogenesis takes place. Related to this it is interesting to note the drought conditions that continue over the Yucatan peninsula, especially in Quintana Roo state where I visited this week (June 1-3) to take part in events related to the activation of civil defense hurricane committees in several of the political subdivions [“municipios”] in which the state is divided, and where there were numerous active wild fires because of the severly dry conditions and increasingly warmer temperatures affecting the region.