The Northern Tropics are Acting-up!

Less than two weeks until the summer solstice marks the northenmost reach of the Sun’s zenith there is an active tropical cyclone, tropical storm ADRIAN, in the eastern Pacific, a tropical wave centered around an area of low pressure just west of the Philippines bringing rain and bad weather to that region, another tropical wave with plenty of stormy weather just off the western coast of India, and over in the Caribbean the remnants of a low pressure cell that flared-up earlier this week remains centered over the basin a day after causing heavy rains and flash flooding in Haiti, which resulted in at least 30 dead.

All in all this tropical activity, early into the 2011 hurricane season [which have different starting dates depending on the specific basin] is a sign of things to come over the next several months worldwide.

Ptojected track for tropical storm ADRIAN as of 8 June 2011 developed by the U.S. Navy reserach laboratory

Tropical storm ADRIAN is moving away from land toward the north by northwest, and it is expected to remain on that track over the next 48-72 hours. Atmospheric conditions ahead of this storm do not appear to be conducive for further development, but interest along the western coast of Mexico and in Baja California should monitor its progress closely to activate emergency plans if needed. The satellite image below shows this tropical cyclone on 8 June 2011:

Infrared satellite image showing tropical storm ADRIAN in the early morning on 8 June 2011

Far to the west over the South China Sea off the western coast of the island of Luzon in the Philippines a tropical wave has flared-up bringing rain, thunderstorms and generally disturbed weather to a wide region. This system is being monitored for potential further development over the next 24-48 hours. The infrared satellite image below shows this weather system on 8 June 2011:

Tropical wave over South China Sea on 8 June 2011

Continuing to move toward the west we find a large tropical wave off the coast of India, near Mumbai, over the Arabian Sea. This system is generating intense rain over the region and it is being monitored closely for potential further strengthening and tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days. The infrared satellite image shows this storm on 8 June 2011:

Active tropical wave in the Arabian Sea near Mumbai, India on 8 June 2011

Closer to our neck-of-the-woods a center of low pressure over the central Caribbean has shown little movement over the past 12 hours as it continues to generate rain over the major Antilles (Cuba, Hispaniola [Haiti, Dominican Republic], Jamaica etc.). Wind shear and other atmospheric conditions over the larger basin are not conducive to further strengthening of this system, but rain remains a threat throughout the region. Interest in the Antilles, the Bahamas and even Florida should continue to monitor this system closely over the next few days.

GOES satellite image showing the low pressure weather system over the Central Caribbean on 8 June 2011

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