Generating from a strong tropical wave emerging from Equatorial Africa over the Cape Verde Islands, Tropical Storm ERIN is now the 5th named tropical cyclone of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
As of this morning at 0500 EST ERIN was located at 16.3 N 30.5 W moving WNW at 25 kph with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph. Current guidance takes ERIN toward the open waters of the Atlantic and a somewhat adverse ocean-atmospheric environment.
Currently it appears ERIN poses no threat to any landmass in the North Atlantic, but we still need to monitor the progress and development of this storm to see what may happen in the next several days.
Following in ERIN’s footsteps there is a large and rather strong tropical wave over Equatorial Africa, which is about to emerge over the warm waters of the eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands, and which is the lead of a train of several other tropical waves or cells of disturbed weather traversing the African continent in a pattern that is typical for this time of the year.
Closer to our neck-of-the-woods the disturbance that traversed the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from east to west on Thursday 15 August is now over the southern Gulf of Mexico moving WNW. The system is somewhat disorganized at present, but it is still generating copious rains on its eastern extreme over the northeastern region of the Yucatan as far back as Cancun and Cozumel. Although the system still has some probability for re-strengthening as it approached a second landfall in Mexico, local conditions do not appear too favorable for further development at this time.
While we continue to monitor Tropical Storm ERIN and the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, our attention needs to be on Equatorial Africa and the eastern Atlantic to see what may become of the several tropical waves and storm cells now moving westward.
Let us remain alert. Pay attention. Be prepared. MITIGATE!
Speaking in sporting terms relative to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season it could be said that it is a couple of minutes before half time, in other words the first half of the hurricane season that matters the most to us here in Florida, or to those who live along the Gulf or Atlantic coastal USA states, is almost over. So far so good, unless you consider that the historical record shows that the most active part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season also starts about now and normally last through mid-October. So, do not broadcast the ‘all clear’ yet, rather the prudent thing to do is to pay attention, be prepared and practice mitigation!
What is happening tropical cyclone-wise in the Atlantic basin on this Tuesday 13 of August 2013? There is a strong tropical wavein the Central Caribbean just southwest of Jamaica that is generating quite a bit of rain throughout the region at it moves generally westward toward the Yucatan Peninsula, which is showing some potential for cyclonic development in the next day or so as it moves into a favorable low wind-shear warm surface water ocean-atmospheric environment. All interest in the Caribbean sub-basin will do well to pay attention to this system and monitor its progress in the next 24-48 hours.
Farther to the east over hurricane alleyand even farther, over the eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands there are a couple of tropical waves that may warrant monitoring over the next few days as they continue to move toward the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean. related to this on this day we also observe a train of tropical waves moving westward over Equatorial Africa adding fuel for potential cyclonic activity as they emerge over the warm waters of the eastern Atlantic.
Elsewhere in the world the eastern Pacific basin has continued to maintain a high level of activity including even today, when we see a few tropical waves or cells of disturbed weather, including two that may warrant further monitoring and investigation, which are following pretty much along the same path recently traveled by tropical Storm Flossieand Hurricane Gil so all interests in the state of Hawaiiwill need to keep an eye on these systems now extending from the eastern Pacific toward the vicinity of our 50th state.
Today also, there is major Typhoon UTORover the South China Sea and the extreme western Pacific heading for landfall somewhere between Hong Kong and Hanoiin the next few hours after having hit the Philippines as a category 3 tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery from 12 August, as the storm approached landfall in the Philippines, and from today when the typhoon is traversing the South China Sea, show regions of intense rain and thunderstorms impacting a rather large region.
Following in UTOR’s footsteps over the far northwestern Pacific Ocean, moving toward the Philippines Sea there are a couple of cells of disturbed weather that are showing some potential for further development in the next couple of days. Residents of the Philippines and other countries in that region, which has seen a steady flow of rather wet disturbed weather cells over the past ninety days or so, must remain vigilant.
This is the ‘pre half-time report’, let us be ready for whatever the second half of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season may bring us. Pay attention! Be prepared!! MITIGATE!!!