Pushed by a strong front moving across the Southeast tropical storm Cristobal made a turn toward the north earlier today, over the southeastern Bahamas. The new forecast track for Cristobal will keep the cyclone farther away from the U.S.A. coastline than initially estimated taking it closer to Bermuda.
Despite its interaction with the front tropical storm Cristobal will encounter conditions favoring further strengthening in the next couple of days as it begins to gradually turn toward the north-northeast and eventually the northeast, so there is a possibility that Cristobal may reach hurricane strength after all.
While the forecast track may keep Cristobal away from the U.S.A. mainland, all interest in Florida and the Atlantic seaboard must remain alert and be prepared for potential impacts along the coastal region.
There is additional potential for cyclonic activity over the Atlantic basin as we look eastward to a couple of tropical waves now riding ‘hurricane alley’, which we should monitor over the next few days.
Slow as the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has been so far, and may continue to be, it is critically important to keep in mind that all it takes is one hit by a hurricane, regardless of its ultimate intensity, to inflict plenty of damage, possible death and injury, and human suffering.
Today the 24th of August, just as we commemorate the devastating impact of category 5 Hurricane ANDREW 22 years ago, Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL the 3rd named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season has reached tropical cyclone status over the southeastern Bahamas. Following is the announcement just issued by the National Hurricane Center earlier this morning
WTNT64 KNHC 241019
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
620 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 MPH...75 KM/H WITH HIGHER
SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Cristobal is much better organized this morning and it shows potential for further strengthening over the next day or so as its forecast track takes it first on a northward track, and eventually on a gradual turn toward the northeast paralleling the USA Atlantic coastline in the next few days.
Looking eastward toward the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic and Equatorial Africa there is some slight increase in tropical weather activity over ‘hurricane alley’ and the ‘tropical wave assembly line’. Satellite imagery taken earlier this morning show several stormy weather cells marching westward.
The historical peak of the annual Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, so the possibility is there for increased activity over the next 3 to 4 weeks. All interest around the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, in Florida, and the U.S.A. Atlantic coastline will do well to remain alert, be prepared and keep practicing mitigation as we keep an eye on the northern tropical Atlantic and the tropical-wave nursery over Equatorial Africa. We still have more than 50% of the official 2014 Atlantic hurricane season ahead of us.