What is happening over the Atlantic?

Projected track for tropical storm DANNY as of 8/23/2015 [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
Projected track for tropical storm DANNY as of 8/23/2015 [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
Tropical cyclone DANNY has had quite an active life since it developed over the eastern Atlantic a few days ago. As DANNY moved westward along ‘hurricane alley’ it progressed rapidly from tropical wave to tropical depression, and then tropical storm becoming the 4th-named storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. Then, in a period of 24 hours DANNY became the first hurricane of the 2015 season, grew to a category 2 hurricane and just briefly became a category 3 storm as it approached the Lesser Antilles.

Based on the projected track for tropical storm DANNY, shown above, as of this Sunday 23 August the storm is forecast to emerge near  the Bahamas and Florida straits by Friday the 28th. It is too early to say what course it will follow then, but a couple of fronts mowing eastward across the eastern and central U.S.A.  (see image below) may indicate DANNY may be pushed to the north and then northeast as in interacts with these systems, but a lot will depend  on other factors affecting the atmosphere-ocean environment along DANNY’s track over the next 48 to 72 hours. So we’ll just have to wait and see, while remaining alert and prepared.

Satellite image [courtesy of NASA] of the central eastern United States showing weather fronts moving eastward across the country on 23 August 2015
Satellite image [courtesy of NASA] of the central eastern United States showing weather fronts moving eastward across the country on 23 August 2015

What should be relevant to all interest in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Florida and the U.S.A. eastern seaboard regions are the two tropical waves now riding ‘hurricane alley’ following on the tracks of DANNY (see image below) . Both of these tropical waves are showing some signs of potential further development, and are being investigated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as this brief report is being posted. It is possible that just as DANNY did one or both of these tropical waves may be strong enough and encounter the right combination of factors to overcome the effects of El Nino (ENSO), which has up to now considerably dampened tropical cyclone generation over the Atlantic basin.

Color-enhanced infraed satellite image (NOAA) of 8/23/2015 showing tropical storm DANNY as it continues to move WNW toward the major Antilles, as well as two tropical waves following in its wake along 'hurricane alley'
Color-enhanced infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 8/23/2015 showing tropical storm DANNY as it continues to move WNW toward the major Antilles, as well as two tropical waves following in its wake along ‘hurricane alley’

All of us here in Florida, and all interests affected by cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin, will do well to monitor the progress of DANNY, as well as these two tropical waves in coming days. Be prepared! Remain alert! MITIGATE!