Category Archives: Hazards

Is the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Here Already?

GOES satellite image of 18 June 2017 in the early evening (Florida time) showing two strong storm cells in the western Caribbean and southwestern north Atlantic, which are already showing potential for tropical cyclone development. (Courtesy of NOAA)

From my vantage point of southeast Florida I can see a rather large storm cell in the northwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Quintana Roo state in Mexico, covering more than four million square kilometers and already causing heavy rains throughout Central America. the Caribbean and major Antilles and even most of Florida, which is also showing some potential cyclonic tendencies. I also see another strong and large tropical wave close to the western terminus of ‘Hurricane Alley’ approaching the minor Antilles, which also shows potential for tropical cyclone development.

Does this mean the “official” 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is about to get underway? Some would argue that the season already got an early start when Tropical Storm ARLENE formed in the Atlantic basin around mid-April 2017. But since the officially human designated start date for the 2017 Atlantic season is June 1, I would argue that the “official” start of the season is still ahead of us.

GOES EAST satellite image (NOAA) of 18 June 2017 in the evening over the Caribbean, showing the rather large storm cell off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico, which is generating heavy rains from the eastern east Pacific sub-basin to Jamaica and Hispaniola and over most of Florida, and it is also showing above average potential for tropical cyclone development as it moves northwestward toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Looking at the Caribbean and Hurricane Alley approaching the Windward Islands, the gateway to the Caribbean, there are two large, rather strong and menacing storm cells. which appear to be ready to mark the “official” start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season.

The storm in the northwestern Caribbean off the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, is moving mainly northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico. It appears this storm will cross over the Yucatan to then emerge over the southwestern Gulf with above average potential for tropical cyclone development. This is a rather large system close to 2,000 kilometers in diameter that is generating vast amounts of rain from Panama to Florida and the eastern east Pacific to Jamaica and Hispaniola. This system is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center and it warrant attention from all interests i Mexico, the Antilles, Florida and all states around the Gulf of Mexico in the next 2 -3 days.

The storm at the western end of ;Hurricane Alley’ approaching the Windward Island and eastern Caribbean is the one that has most of my attention. This storm is moving west and based on its peak sustained winds it may have already reached tropical storm intensity. A close analysis of satellite imagery including wind is showing spiral bands converging toward a center of low pressure, an indication of strong cyclonic tendencies. I recommend all interests in the Caribbean, Gulf and Florida region need to monitor this system closely over the next 2 to 3 days.

The official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season may be about to start. This is the time to remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!


A large storm. already affecting fourteen states, marches eastward across the south-central USA this 28 May 2017. (NOAA GOES EAST)

Disturbed weather is everywhere. A huge storm, now affecting fourteen states across the south-central USA, has been moving eastward with damaging winds, possible tornadoes, severe lightning, hail, and heavy rains.

A strengthening Tropical Storm TWO moves toward Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal (HIMAWARI-8 Satellite image)
Projected track for Tropical Storm TWO in the Bay of Bengal, on 28 May 2017 (Courtesy, U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research)

On the other side of the planet in the Bay of Bengal, a large and strengthening Tropical Storm TWO is moving generally north toward Bangladesh. Flooding is expected in the low-laying coastal regions of Bangladesh, and possibly northeastern India and northwestern Burma. There is also a large cell of disturbed weather over the South China Sea, between the Philippines and Vietnam, which is showing some cyclonic tendencies meriting investigation and close monitoring.

Large disturbed weather cell over the South China Sea is being monitored for possible cyclonic development. (HIMAWARI-8 Satellite)

A large region from Southern Mexico to Panama and waters of the eastern east Pacific has been under a conglomerate of stormy weather cells, which have been causing extreme rain, severe lightning, and instances of flooding throughout the area for the past few days. This has brought much-needed rain to alleviate drought conditions in Nicaragua and other Central American countries, but at the price of damaging flash floods and winds.

GOES EAST satellite image of 28 May 2017, shows stormy weather ranging from the eastern Atlantic off the coast of equatorial Africa, to a vast region encompassing Southern Mexico, Central America, Panama, northern Colombia, and waters of the eastern east Pacific. (NOAA)

Hurricane alley just north of the equator is filling up with storms and disturbed weather cells, generated by tropical waves emerging from equatorial Africa, all the way from eastern Atlantic waters to the Caribbean.

It is clear we need to be prepared and remain alert. MITIGATE!