Back on 20 August we posted comments about Hurricane Alley Traffic, and in 22 August we posted Beware of the Tropics!. Today on 25 August 2010 we see several of the concerns expressed in those postings becoming real hazards. What was then Tropical Depression #6 is now Hurricane Daniellein the middle of the tropical north Atlantic following a track that may keep it away from land as it recurbs toward the north and eventually the northeast. The large tropical wave we alerted about as it emerged from equatorial Africa, over the warm waters of the eastern Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands, is now Tropical Depression #7 riding along ‘hurricane alley’ on what appears, at least for now, a more westerly track than Danielle followed before, which could spell potential trouble ahead for Caribbean nations and even South Florida or the mid-Atlantic mainland USA a few days from today.
As if Danielle and TD #7 were not enough, there is already another quite large tropical wave just now coming over the eastern Atlantic waters south of the Cape Verdes, and a couple more tropical waves following behind it at regularly spaced intervals. What we are seeing is the tropical wave assembly line in equatorial Africa kicking into a higher gear generating tropical waves, fueled by the heat and high moisture content in the atmosphere and trade winds pushing storms westward over Africa from the Indian ocean.
Dramatic as this higher level of activity is it should not be surprising, after all the most active period of the annual Atlantic hurricane season historically has taken place in late August and September, so we still have plenty of tropical activity in front of us. As it is, over the past few weeks planet Earth has had a ‘belt’ of disturbed tropical weather around it just to the north of the equator, as illustrated by the composite satellite view that follows:
While this is in progress we must take a look at the eastern Pacific just south of the equator off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, where surface waters have temperatures averaging 15 degrees Celsius with even colder surface waters nearer the land. What we are seeing is a typical La Nina event, part of the Pacific ocean ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, which traditionally creates a favorable environment for tropical cyclone generation (cyclogenesis) over the tropical north Atlantic ocean. How much will the current La Nina contribute to hurricane development in the Atlantic depends on several other factors and remains to be seen. However, the mere fact of an unfolding La Nina combining with all the tropical activity already being generated in the Indian ocean, over equatorial Africa and along hurricane alley in the Atlantic, should sound the alert for all of us who reside along the coastal regions of the Western Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf, to pay attention, be prepared, and to always practice MITIGATION. Relative to this it is critical that we all keep in mind that there is no such a thing as just a minor hurricane, every hurricane is capable of causing plenty of damage on building, infrastructure and property, and when it comes to a major hurricane (category 3 or higher on the Safir-Simpson scale) all it takes is one making landfall over a vulnerable community to cause major damage or even a disaster.
It started about 4 -5 days ago as several tropical waves came out of the tropical wave assembly line over equatorial Africa and marched over the eastern Atlantic toward hurricane alley, eventually congealing into an elongated area of storms and rain more than 2000 miles long, which became part of a belt of tropical disturbed weather circling the Earth just north of the equator.
As this elongated assemblage of tropical waves progressed along the warm waters of hurricane alley it encountered a favorable environment, which caused some of its component cells to get better organized and stronger. On 21 August one of these cells became a tropical depression, #6 of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
Tropical depression #6 is being monitored closely by the National Hurricane Center as it continues to strengthen appearing poised for possible tropical cyclone development later today. The system had maximum sustained winds near 35 mph while it moved west by northwest at 8 mph.
Collaterally with this situation in hurricane alley the assembly line over equatorial Africa is generating some rather large and strong tropical waves, one of which is currently emerging over the eastern Atlantic to the south of the Cape Verde Islands. Other tropical waves are following on the same track respectively about 900 and 1800 miles behind. At the same time the Indian ocean to the east and southeast of India and near Indonesia is laden with very large and strong storm cells generating plenty of rain and disturbed weather, which are moving toward the west and eastern equatorial Africa; on the basis of these current weather conditions it would appear the tropical wave assembly line should have plenty of fuel in coming days to continue feeding hurricane alley over in the Atlantic.
Given these current tropical weather conditions, plus the fact that historically the most active phase of the annual Atlantic hurricane season takes place between mid-August and mid-October, with September being the most active month based on the historical record, we should all monitor these conditions closely for signs of potential tropical cyclone development in days and weeks to come. Keep in mind all it may take is one impact from a landfalling hurricane to have widespread damage and human suffering. WE must all pay attention, be prepared and above all, PRACTICE MITIGATION!!!