Category Archives: Storm Surge

State University System Climate Change Taskforce Workshop

  Last 14-15 November 2011 I had the opportunity of participating in the SUS CLIMATE CHANGE TASK FORCE WORKSHOP, organized and hosted by Florida Atlantic University [FAU], Florida State University [FSU], the University of Florida [UF], and The Florida Climate Institute. The event’s venue was Emerson Alumni Hall at UF in Gainesville.

Speaking as someone who has organized, hosted, participated in and otherwise attended a number of events on the topic of climate change over the past fifteen years I can attest to the fact that at times, for some of us with an interest in this critical field, as we have continued to see many of the same participants and to debate the same issues, and listen to the same topics being presented, it may have appeared repetitive, as it happens when you are preaching to the choir, or as if we were long on questions and short on solutions.

With regard to the above, I am pleased to report that this specific workshop was indeed refreshingly different. Although we took a look at the state of the science and other similarly traditional presentations, there was a much welcome emphasis on solutions, applications and on the business side of climate change. For example we heard from two non-academics, one the former mayor of the City of Gainesville who described for us how this Florida municipality and college town used the Climate Protection Agreement subscribed by the U.S. Conference of Mayors, representing 1054 municipalities from all 50 states plus DC and Puerto Rico, as a blue print to promote grants and incentives for business and government to become more energy-efficient and reduce its climate-damaging emissions.

The net result of these initiatives by the City of Gainesville  has been the stimulation of businesses, and the creation of jobs, in sectors related to building insulation, roofing systems, more efficient heating and air conditioning systems, manufacturing and installation of solar energy systems and the installation of a 100 MW plant to generate electricity from biomass to replace previously purchased electrical power generated by fossil fuel plants. While generating all of these economic activity, that has benefited so many, the city has reduced its carbon footprint, it has become much more energy efficient, and it is on target to have achieved a 7% reduction in total emissions below the 1990 levels by the end of 2012. This is an excellent case-study of a community that will achieve the targets set by the controversial Kyoto Protocol, while also stimulating its economy and generating jobs, contrary to the dire predictions of nay-sayers and those who deny global climate change on the basis of ideology rather than facts.

Another speaker, this one from the private business sector, who addressed solutions and results rather than uncertainties and doomsday predictions, was the Director of Environmental Services Strategic Planning for Florida Power and Light. This speaker discussed major industry policies and program to address climate change, and in the process described specific programs by this giant utility company to increase the installed capacity for generating solar and wind energy, programs to increased zero-emission nuclear power generation, the hardening of existing infrastructure and of new buildings through programs of design criteria and retrofitting to incorporate adaptation to climate change impacts.

Several other speakers and panelists continued to provide examples of actual solutions and success stories, painting a picture of a paradigm shift in the climate change arena. It is clear numerous communities, pushed by both public and private sector programs, have moved from dwelling on the uncertainties of research and the need for more research to identifying and implementing actual solutions. Rather than waiting for the federal government to act of for directives from other sources, these communities have taken a proactive approach to contributing to climate change adaptation and mitigation, while also showing this can be accomplished collaterally with beneficial economic results.

For a summary report of the full workshop please use the following link: SUMMARY REPORT

I had the privilege of presenting a poster [Presentation1 ] regarding what I see as a critical knowledge gap in  the criteria used for designing and building structures and houses in the coastal regions, which are vulnerable to hurricanes and storm surge that will become increasingly more damaging as these hazards are exacerbated by sea level rise driven by global warming. Following is a link to the abstract of my poster presentation [Poster Abstract] which was titled Storm Surge and Climate Change: The Forgotten Factor.

Presentation1

RINA: A Complex Environment

Infrared GOES satellite image of Hurricane RINA in the early morning of 27 October 2011 also showing the remnants of a tropical wave in the Caribbean, now a large cell of stormy weather near the Nicaragua-Honduras border

It is now 8:00 a.m. EST on Thursday 27 October 2011. Early data from the GOES satellite and hurricane-hunter aircraft is that Hurricane Rina has continued to weaken during the night, a trend that started some 24 hours ago, as it feels the effects of wind shear resulting from its clash with a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, a rather dry atmosphere to the west and north of its path and the early effects of a cold front now moving south and east over the southern USA. Early reports from National Hurricane Center forecasters are that this tropical cyclone is barely a hurricane, with surface winds estimated at 110 kph. Visual clues empirically confirm what the data are telling us, the overall size of the system is perhaps half of what it was just 48 hours ago, the perimeter has a jagged appearance as wind shear is taking its toll, the eye is not readily discernible, and the outflow from the top of the storm is almost absent: all of these are signs of a weakening system.

GOES satellite image of Hurricane RINA on 27 October 2011 in the morning showing water vapor in the atmosphere to help illustrate the adverse environment around this storm, whcih has contributed to its recent weakening

RINA has shifted its track as it continues its progressive turn toward the north, and it is now moving northwest by north at 10 kph. At this rate and direction the storm appears headed for an impact over the general area of Playa del Carmen – Cozumel-Cancun, in the state of Quintana Roo in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula during the night tonight.

Regarding RINA’s track it is important to note that consensus among the various forecast models is now in closer agreement than we have had over the past couple of days. Most models are now forecasting the cyclone will come overland in the northeastern region of the Yucatan Peninsula, then exit over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and under the effects of a high pressure system and cold front pushing south over the Gulf, start a ‘hairpin’ turn toward the east and then southeast by this weekend or early this coming week. This projected track appears to bring RINA back into the Caribbean or Cuba in 4 to 5 days from now. While this scenario reflects the consensus of  most model it should however be noted that at least two of the models project RINA will track over the Florida Straits or even the Florida Keys and extreme southeastern Florida around 5 days from now. This projected track is illustrated below:

Projected track for Hurricane RINA as of 27 October 2011 developed by the Navy Research Laboratory of the United States

In considering what this projected track might mean for various interests around the Caribbean sub-basin and in Florida, the main questions becomes: what will happen to RINA intensity-wise as it follows such convoluted path in 4 or 5 days from today? As a weakening system, which is projected to continue weakening, will RINA survive as a tropical cyclone in 4  or 5 days. From previous discussions we have seen that if predicting the track to be followed by a tropical cyclone is difficult, it is even more difficult to predict what the intensity of a storm may be 2 to 3 days hence, and extremely more so when we are talking about 4 or 5 days from today. The general thinking has RINA decaying to tropical storm strength as it interacts with land over Quintana Roo and continues to sustain the effects of the various external factors already mentioned here. What will happen as RINA re-emerges over waters in the Gulf of Mexico? Given the adverse environment that will prevail over that region over the next several days it appears unlikely the storm would regain strength at that time, consequently we might be might see only the remnants of RINA making the hairpin turn in the projected track 4 – 5 days from now.

What does it all mean for communities in the path of RINA, such as vulnerable communities in the coastal region of Quintana Roo, Mexico? What about Tulum, Xel-Ha, Playa del Carmen, Cozumel, Puerto Morelos, Cancun, Isla Mujeres and the numerous resorts along the so-called ‘Riviera Maya’? My recommendation to all those communities that will suffer, in varied measure, the impact of RINA, is do not let your guard down and be deceived by a weakening storm. Winds of 100-120 kilometers per hour, possibly gusting to 140-150 kph can be quite damaging generating considerable flying debris, with the potential for causing injury or even death as well as damage to buildings and structures. Storm surge and superimposed waves have the capacity of exerting tremendously strong impact loads on buildings and infrastructure in the coastal region in addition to causing severe beach erosion. From communications with contacts in Quintana Roo I know for a fact that Civil Protection authorities have activated emergency plans, which include evacuation of tourists from coastal resorts. Civil protection  authorities in Quintana Roo have an excellent record of proactively activating emergency plans, convening emergency committees at the municipal level, and of protecting the lives of visitors and residents alike from the impacts of tropical cyclones their state suffers with some frequency because of its geographic location.

Satellite image with superimposed wind analysis on 27 October 2011 developed by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies of the University of Wisconsin in Madison

What else is happening in the Caribbean or elsewhere in the larger Atlantic basin? For starters, the tropical wave of low-pressure that was active in the southeastern Caribbean and moving westward has become disorganized, and it shows low to no probability for further development. This system has been moving at a rather fast clip of 20 – 25 kph and it is now a large cell of disturbed weather, with plenty of thunderstorm activity and heavy precipitation, located to the east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border and continuing to move generally westward at approximately 20 kph. What is interesting about this system has been its fast  pace of forward movement especially when compared to the rather slow pace at which RINA has been moving, which raised a remote potential for some interaction between both systems. An interesting question would be, if the remnants of RINA as it recurves back into the Caribbean and those of this other system, may not generate some sequel should they happen to interact in the future? Relative to this, it wouldn’t be the first time we see the remnants of a system in the Caribbean interact with another and be re-energized to become something totally new, even a new tropical cyclone.

Satellite image on 27 October 2011 showing water vapor in the atmosphere over most of the tropical North Atlantic basin

Farther east other than a couple of areas of rain over ‘hurricane alley’ and the eastern Atlantic there is nothing, for now at least, showing potential for cyclonic development. Tropical waves over equatorial Africa continue to develop, and although such activity has shifted southward toward the equator there is still some potential for any one of these waves to emerge over the eastern Atlantic and head toward the Caribbean. So, as I always say: pay attention! Be prepared!! MITIGATE!!!