Category Archives: Tropical Storm

FIVE AND COUNTING

Visible light satellite image (NOAA) of 9 July showing a strengthening Hurricane EUGENE off the Pacific coast of Mexico

A strengthening Hurricane EUGENE. the fifth-named tropical cyclone of the 2017 eastern north Pacific hurricane season is active off the western coast of Mexico, moving NW parallel to the coastline.

Projected track of Hurricane EUGENE as of 9 July 2017 (Courtesy of the U.S. Navy Research Lab.)

EUGENE is the fifth tropical cyclone to generate in this sub-basin over the last seven weeks. The probability of other tropical cyclones developing soon in this sub-basin appears strong, given the continued presence of a conglomerate of tropical waves and disturbed weather cells in the region extending from the Gulf of Panama to the Pacific waters off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico, which is in part being fed by tropical waves generated over the eastern Atlantic traveling along ‘Hurricane alley’ and crossing over northern Venezuela and Colombia into the Pacific.

GOES WEST infrared satellite image of 9 July 2017 showing Hurricane EUGENE off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Notice the conglomerate of disturbed weather cells and tropical waves ranging from the Gulf of Panama to waters off the coast of southern Mexico.

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season, which is forecast to be busier than average by NOAA, has produced an early ‘off-season’ tropical storm ARLENE in April, and two other named storms, BRET and Cindy, since the official start of the season on 1 June. Tropical Depression #4 generated recently over the western end of ‘Hurricane Alley’, but dissipated over the weekend before amounting to much of anything.  However, the tropical wave ‘assembly line’ over Equatorial Africa and the region over the Eastern Atlantic continue to be populated by stormy weather cells and tropical waves, which provide a continuous source of ‘fuel’ for possible future cyclogenesis over the increasingly warmer surface waters of the Atlantic.

Infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 9 July 2017 showing several tropical waves over the eastern Atlantic waters south of the Cape Verde Islands, and over Equatorial Africa.

While we watch and wait for what may develop, we must remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!

Tropical Storm BRET makes it official!

Just as forecast in our previous posting, the storm at the western end of Hurricane Alley is now a tropical cyclone named Tropical Storm BRET, which makes the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially open, that is if you are willing to consider Tropical Storm ARLENE (April 2017) and ‘off-season’ tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

Projected track for Tropical Storm BRET as of Monday 19 June 2017 (Courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory)

Tropical Storm BRET appears to be headed for Trinidad as it skirts the coast of Venezuela and the southeastern Caribbean beyond where the environment will not favor further development of this system.

GOES East satellite image (NOAA) of Monday 19 June 2017 showing Tropical Storm BRET, the first named storm of the ‘official’ 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Farther west and north in the central Gulf of Mexico the other storm we’ve been watching continues to strengthen and appears of the brink of becoming a tropical cyclones as it moves northward toward Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Meanwhile in the eastern Atlantic. tropical waves continue to emerge from the assembly line over equatorial Africa. There appears to be plenty of ‘fuel’ for potential cyclonic activity in coming days. Get ready. Remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!