On 27 August 2010 hurricane Danielle strengthened to category 4 over the open waters of the Atlantic as it continued to move toward the general region of Bermuda, At the same time Tropical Storm Earl continues to have maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and it is holding its generally due west course. Following behind is a large tropical wave to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, which continues to show signs of potential strengthening and tropical cyclone development at it is surrounded by favorable conditions. Not too fat behind several other tropical waves and areas of disturbed weather over equatorial Africa, and a far back as the Indian Ocean are all lined-up to get of the ‘assembly line’ and eventually ride ‘hurricane alley’ toward our neighborhood. It is clear all interest in the Caribbean and Gulf basisn, and in Florida and the rest of the USA Atlantic coastal region must be on the alert, paying constant attention to all of these potential threats being generated by Nature as we enter the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Pay attention! Be prepared!! MITIGATE!!!
Back on 20 August we posted comments about Hurricane Alley Traffic, and in 22 August we posted Beware of the Tropics!. Today on 25 August 2010 we see several of the concerns expressed in those postings becoming real hazards. What was then Tropical Depression #6 is now Hurricane Daniellein the middle of the tropical north Atlantic following a track that may keep it away from land as it recurbs toward the north and eventually the northeast. The large tropical wave we alerted about as it emerged from equatorial Africa, over the warm waters of the eastern Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands, is now Tropical Depression #7 riding along ‘hurricane alley’ on what appears, at least for now, a more westerly track than Danielle followed before, which could spell potential trouble ahead for Caribbean nations and even South Florida or the mid-Atlantic mainland USA a few days from today.
As if Danielle and TD #7 were not enough, there is already another quite large tropical wave just now coming over the eastern Atlantic waters south of the Cape Verdes, and a couple more tropical waves following behind it at regularly spaced intervals. What we are seeing is the tropical wave assembly line in equatorial Africa kicking into a higher gear generating tropical waves, fueled by the heat and high moisture content in the atmosphere and trade winds pushing storms westward over Africa from the Indian ocean.
Dramatic as this higher level of activity is it should not be surprising, after all the most active period of the annual Atlantic hurricane season historically has taken place in late August and September, so we still have plenty of tropical activity in front of us. As it is, over the past few weeks planet Earth has had a ‘belt’ of disturbed tropical weather around it just to the north of the equator, as illustrated by the composite satellite view that follows:
While this is in progress we must take a look at the eastern Pacific just south of the equator off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, where surface waters have temperatures averaging 15 degrees Celsius with even colder surface waters nearer the land. What we are seeing is a typical La Nina event, part of the Pacific ocean ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, which traditionally creates a favorable environment for tropical cyclone generation (cyclogenesis) over the tropical north Atlantic ocean. How much will the current La Nina contribute to hurricane development in the Atlantic depends on several other factors and remains to be seen. However, the mere fact of an unfolding La Nina combining with all the tropical activity already being generated in the Indian ocean, over equatorial Africa and along hurricane alley in the Atlantic, should sound the alert for all of us who reside along the coastal regions of the Western Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf, to pay attention, be prepared, and to always practice MITIGATION. Relative to this it is critical that we all keep in mind that there is no such a thing as just a minor hurricane, every hurricane is capable of causing plenty of damage on building, infrastructure and property, and when it comes to a major hurricane (category 3 or higher on the Safir-Simpson scale) all it takes is one making landfall over a vulnerable community to cause major damage or even a disaster.