Earlier this year predictions called for a rather active 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season, but as an incipient ENSO began to show off the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador and other contributing factors became evasive, predictions were changed to a “somewhat below average” to “average” season, whatever “average” means.

The reality of tropical cyclone activity in 2018 in the Earth’s northern hemisphere is that while the Northwest Pacific has already seen 23 named-storms, some of them ferocious category 5 cyclones, and the East Pacific is already up to 15 named-storm, the Atlantic basin has been somewhat quiet with  barely six named-storm by early September until FLORENCE, number 7, appeared over the eastern Atlantic but soon encountered an adverse ocean-atmosphere environment and wind shear, which weakened considerably putting in doubt its future progress.

Full Disk – Clean Longwave Window – IR

As of today all of that has changed, FLORENCE is regaining strength and may possibly become a major hurricane as it continues to move toward the Carolinas on the east coast, while two other tropical storms HELENE and ISAAC have formed over the far eastern Atlantic. At the same time, a low pressure system moves over Bermuda ahead of Florence, and a menacing looking tropical wave over equatorial Africa continues moving westward toward the Atlantic just south of the Cape Verde islands, and a large cell of disturbed weather is on the march in the Caribbean. So, as of this Saturday 8 September we have reached nine named-storm and there is plenty of fuel for additional cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin.

Projected track of FLORENCE as of 8 September 2018

All interests in and around the north Atlantic basin must monitor these named tropical cyclones closely over the next few days, and be on the alert for other potential cyclonic activity in days to come. Be prepared! MITIGATE!

Projected Hurricane OLIVIA as of 8 September 2018 has it aiming for Hawaii

Elsewhere, hurricane OLIVIA appears to be aiming for Hawaii, which is still recovering from the brush with LANE just a couple of weeks ago. Farther to the west, Typhoon MANGKHUT is moving over the northwest Pacific in the general direction of the northern Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan. This is a region that has already seen several landfalling tropical cyclones causing plenty of damage and human suffering.

Tropical Cyclone Activity Continues in the Pacific

Three days ago I posted a piece highlighting several named-storms and tropical waves active in the vast Pacific basin from the east, off the coast of Mexico and Central America, to the far reaches of the Northwest Pacific near Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Viet Nam. Today, Friday 17 August, new tropical cyclones confirm the agitated state of this basin.

Two new named tropical cyclones, SOULIK and RUMBIA, have activated over the Northwest Pacific sub-basin, while several tropical waves are also active in the region

Two new named tropical cyclones are now active in the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm RUMBIA approaching landfall in China near Shanghai, and Typhoon SOULIK approaching southern Japan. At the same time, Tropical Storm BEBINCA has made landfall in Viet Nam south of Hanoi and continues to move inland.

Satellite image (NOAA) of 17 August 2018 showing Hurricane LANE, the 12th named tropical cyclone of the 2018 East Pacific Hurricane Season that began 15 May

Over the East Pacific sub-basin , about half way between Mexico and Hawaii, there is Tropical Storm LANE, the 12th named tropical cyclone of the 2018 East Pacific hurricane season that officially started on 15 May. Concurrently there are a few tropical waves closer to the coast of Central America.

Satellite image (NOAA) over the North Atlantic basin on Friday 17 August, showing some activity in what so far has been a rather quiet season.

In the Atlantic Basin the 5th named tropical cyclone of the 2018 season, tropical Storm ERNESTO is now active to the northwest of the Azores moving toward the northeast.  There is also a tropical depression riding along hurricane alley as it moves toward the Windward Islands. This particular system warrants close monitoring over the next couple of days.

Vulnerability Assessnebt & Mitigation

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