Tag Archives: 2015 East Pacific hurricane season

PATRICIA: One for the record book!

On Tuesday 20 October 2015 a couple of tropical waves off the Pacific coast of Central America, a region that has seen continued disturbed weather activity for several months now, started to get better organized showing signs of potential further development.  I was aware of these systems while I was following Hurricane OLAF in the Central Pacific to the southeast of Hawaii.

Infrared satellite image [NASA] of Hurricane PATRICIA in the early morning hours of this Friday 23 October 2015 as it aimed for the Pacific coastal region of central Mexico
Infrared satellite image [NASA] of Hurricane PATRICIA in the early morning hours of this Friday 23 October 2015 as it aimed for the Pacific coastal region of central Mexico
On Wednesday the 21st one of these tropical waves  got organized, became a tropical depression and continued strengthening into  tropical storm PATRICIA, the sixteenth-named tropical cyclone of the 2015 East Pacific hurricane season, still showing signs of potential further development late that same day. Initial model runs predicted a track paralleling the Pacific coast of Mexico slowly recurving toward the north and then northeast over an area of rather warm sea surface waters, perhaps reaching mid category 2 strength before making landfall and decaying.

Map showing a region of rather warm sea surface temperatures where hurricane PATRICIA continues to move toward the coast of Mexico
Map showing a region of rather warm sea surface temperatures where hurricane PATRICIA continues to move toward the coast of Mexico

During the night to early morning hours from Wednesday into Thursday the 22nd PATRICIA reached hurricane strength and turned further northeast toward the coast of central Mexico from Manzanillo to Puerto Vallarta. Intensity predictions continued to be for a mid category 2 tropical cyclone.

Color-enhanced infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 23 October showing hurricane OLAF in the central pacific and monstrous category 5 hurricane PATRICIA approaching landfall in Mexico
Color-enhanced infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 23 October showing hurricane OLAF in the central pacific and monstrous category 5 hurricane PATRICIA approaching landfall in Mexico

Something happened during the night hours from Thursday into Friday the 23rd that propelled PATRICIA through a process of rapid, and unprecedented, intensification to a rather strong, even monstrous, category 5 hurricane.

Projected track of hurricane PATRICIA (courtesy of the U.S. Navy research Laboratory) showing potential landfall in the region from Manzanillo to Puerto Vallarta
Projected track of hurricane PATRICIA (courtesy of the U.S. Navy research Laboratory) showing potential landfall in the region from Manzanillo to Puerto Vallarta

As of mid-morning this Friday 23 October PATRICIA is generating sustained maximum winds of 325 kph (~ 202 mph) gusting to 386 kph and still strengthening. Analysis of current data indicates the hurricane may reach winds of 335-340 kph gusting to near 400 kph before landfall on the central Pacific coast of Mexico, some time this afternoon.

All indications are that PATRICIA may still be a category 5 storm when it makes landfall, only the second category 5 hurricane to do so since records have been kept. Storm surge, extremely high waves, extreme rainfall in addition to very strong winds will batter the coastal region generating flash flooding and mudslides.

PATRICIA is so large of a system, at more than 1000 kilometers in diameter, that is already interacting with atmospheric systems over Texas and the southern plains of the U.S.A. where copious amounts f rain and potential flooding are expected today.

Full Earth disk satellite image [NASA] of 23 October 2015 showing Hurricane PATRICIA near the pacific coast of Mexico
Full Earth disk satellite image [NASA] of 23 October 2015 showing Hurricane PATRICIA near the pacific coast of Mexico
PATRICIA appears to be one for the record book!

HURRICANE GUILLERMO aims for Hawaii

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On this Saturday the 1st day of August there are two tropical cyclones and two low pressure disturbances in the Pacific Ocean. Hurricane GUILLERMO, the 7th named storm of the 2015 East Pacific hurricane season that ‘officially’ opened on 15 May, is a strengthening storm approaching the central Pacific moving in the general direction of the ‘big island’ of Hawaii.

Projected track of Hurricane GUILLERMO as  of 1 August 2015. The storm, which is expected to continue strengthening over the next 24 - 48 hours is forecasted to then weaken as it gets closer to the Big Island of Hawaii by mid-week
Projected track of Hurricane GUILLERMO as of 1 August 2015. The storm, which is expected to continue strengthening over the next 24 – 48 hours is forecasted to then weaken as it gets closer to the Big Island of Hawaii by mid-week
Infrared satellite image of 1 August 2015 showing Tropical Storm SOUDELOR in the northwestern Pacific approaching the Philippines Sea
Infrared satellite image of 1 August 2015 showing Tropical Storm SOUDELOR in the northwestern Pacific approaching the Philippines Sea

Elsewhere in the Pacific a strengthening tropical storm SOUDELOR is approaching the Philippines Sea aiming in the general direction of southern Japan.

Infrared satellite image of 1 August 2015 showing the remains of a tropical storm in the region of the Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh
Infrared satellite image of 1 August 2015 showing the remains of a tropical storm in the region of the Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh

Over Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal we are still seeing  what remains of a tropical storm that recently made landfall there, which is generating copious rains over a vast region.

Visible light satellite image [NOAA} showing a low pressure disturbance currently moving westward along 'hurricane alley' in the general direction of the Windward Islands.
Visible light satellite image [NOAA} showing a low pressure disturbance currently moving westward along ‘hurricane alley’ in the general direction of the Windward Islands.
Closer to us here in Florida, we can see a low pressure disturbance moving generally westward along ‘hurricane alley’ in the midst of a long train of large cells of disturbed weather populating the full 4000 kilometer length of the alley from the western coast of Equatorial Africa and the region south of the Cape Verde Islands all the way to near the northeastern coast of South America.  This disturbance has been designated as ’94L INVEST’ and is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NOAA) for any signs of potential cyclonic development in what has been an otherwise rather quiet 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.

Color-enhanced infrared satellite image [NOAA] of 1 August 2015 showing the entire 4000 km length of 'Hurricane Alley' populated by a train of tropical waves.
Color-enhanced infrared satellite image [NOAA] of 1 August 2015 showing the entire 4000 km length of ‘Hurricane Alley’ populated by a train of tropical waves.
Keep on watching. Remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!