Tag Archives: Antilles

Tropical Storm GERT is Here! Seven Down, How Many More to Go?

Today, Sunday 14 August 2011 a new tropical cyclone, GERT. the 7th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season was generated over the open water of the central north Atlantic. Late in the afternoon GERT was located some 200 kilometers to the south by southeast of Bermuda; with the storm tracking north by northwest at 12 kph GERT appear to be in route to cause significant precipitation and stormy weather over Bermuda in the early morning hours on Monday 15 August, 2011.

Visible light satellite image, courtesy of NASA, showing Tropical Storm GERT on 14 August 2011 as it moved north by northwest toward Bermuda, some 200 kilometers away, with maximum sustained winds of 75 kpk gusting to 95 kph.
Map showing projected track for Tropical Storm GERT as of 14 August 2011, courtesy of the U.S. Navy Research Laboratory

While GERT is in progress toward BERMUDA some 500 kilometers to the north of the island there is Tropical Wave 96L showing some signs of organization as it is being pulled in the wake of now-dissipated-and far-away Tropical Storm FRANKLIN. There is also Tropical Wave 92L, which has been active for the past four days, following in the wake of GERT and given a 30% probability, at this time, of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 – 48 hours.

Color-enhanced infrared satellite image, courtesy of NASA, showing current cyclonic activity near Bermuda on 14 August 2011.

So the Central North Atlantic is hosting quite a share of cyclonic activity as the 2011 Hurricane Season continues to evolve at a higher level of activity than during the first 60 days. Looking farther south and east from were  all of this cyclonic activity is currently taking place to aspects are noticeable: (a) new cells of disturbed weather have moved over ‘hurricane alley’ once again completing the continuous “belt of tropical activity” that had been disrupted over the last 2-3 days, and (b) there are at least three quite large cells of disturbed weather over equatorial Africa, which as they continue to move west appear to be destined to become the next generation of tropical waves to emerge over the eastern Atlantic to march westward over ‘hurricane alley’ or, perhaps, to take the northwesterly detour FRANKLIN, GERT and tropical waves 92L, 93L and 94L have taken over the past few days. Whatever course this future tropical waves take will determine whether the next round of tropical cyclone activity will generate over the central north Atlantic or if we will see a return of cyclogenesis in the Caribbean or over the Antilles.

Color-enhanced infrared satellite image, courtesy of NASA, on 14 August 2011 showing several large tropical waves or cells of disturbed weather, withpotential for cyclonic development, marching west over equatorial Africa and the eastern Atlantic.
Composite full-disk satellite image of Earth's western hemisphere on 14 August 2011 showing the belt of tropical activity circling the planet, and the northwesterly-northerly 'detour' that generated last week to feed the current bout of cyclogenesis near Bermuda.

While we witness this surge of cyclonic activity over the central north Atlantic, we will do well by continuing to monitor potential contributors to cyclogenesis in the larger Atlantic basin as they continue to appear over equatorial Africa, the eastern Atlantic or in any of the various sub-basins [Caribbean, Gulf] in coming days and weeks. With 60% of the ‘official’ annual Atlantic Hurricane season still to come given the level of activity seen so far, and the historically most active segment of the season expected in late august and September, it behooves all interest in the Atlantic basin to remain vigilant, to pay attention! To be prepared!! And, above all, to practice MITIGATION!!!

The Northern Tropics are Acting-up!

Less than two weeks until the summer solstice marks the northenmost reach of the Sun’s zenith there is an active tropical cyclone, tropical storm ADRIAN, in the eastern Pacific, a tropical wave centered around an area of low pressure just west of the Philippines bringing rain and bad weather to that region, another tropical wave with plenty of stormy weather just off the western coast of India, and over in the Caribbean the remnants of a low pressure cell that flared-up earlier this week remains centered over the basin a day after causing heavy rains and flash flooding in Haiti, which resulted in at least 30 dead.

All in all this tropical activity, early into the 2011 hurricane season [which have different starting dates depending on the specific basin] is a sign of things to come over the next several months worldwide.

Ptojected track for tropical storm ADRIAN as of 8 June 2011 developed by the U.S. Navy reserach laboratory

Tropical storm ADRIAN is moving away from land toward the north by northwest, and it is expected to remain on that track over the next 48-72 hours. Atmospheric conditions ahead of this storm do not appear to be conducive for further development, but interest along the western coast of Mexico and in Baja California should monitor its progress closely to activate emergency plans if needed. The satellite image below shows this tropical cyclone on 8 June 2011:

Infrared satellite image showing tropical storm ADRIAN in the early morning on 8 June 2011

Far to the west over the South China Sea off the western coast of the island of Luzon in the Philippines a tropical wave has flared-up bringing rain, thunderstorms and generally disturbed weather to a wide region. This system is being monitored for potential further development over the next 24-48 hours. The infrared satellite image below shows this weather system on 8 June 2011:

Tropical wave over South China Sea on 8 June 2011

Continuing to move toward the west we find a large tropical wave off the coast of India, near Mumbai, over the Arabian Sea. This system is generating intense rain over the region and it is being monitored closely for potential further strengthening and tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days. The infrared satellite image shows this storm on 8 June 2011:

Active tropical wave in the Arabian Sea near Mumbai, India on 8 June 2011

Closer to our neck-of-the-woods a center of low pressure over the central Caribbean has shown little movement over the past 12 hours as it continues to generate rain over the major Antilles (Cuba, Hispaniola [Haiti, Dominican Republic], Jamaica etc.). Wind shear and other atmospheric conditions over the larger basin are not conducive to further strengthening of this system, but rain remains a threat throughout the region. Interest in the Antilles, the Bahamas and even Florida should continue to monitor this system closely over the next few days.

GOES satellite image showing the low pressure weather system over the Central Caribbean on 8 June 2011