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27 August 2016. Remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!

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We are approaching what historically has been the peak of the annual Atlantic hurricane season, and there is plenty of activity both on the North Atlantic basin and in the Eastern North Pacific basin as well.

GOES EAST infrared satellite image of 27 August 2016 showing tropical cyclonic and stormy weather activity over the north Atlantic basin

GOES EAST infrared satellite image of 27 August 2016 showing tropical cyclonic and stormy weather activity over the north Atlantic basin

The tropical wave we’ve been tracking for several days, since it rode along Hurricane Alley toward the Antilles and the U.S.A., is over the central Bahamas this Saturday 27 August 2016 generating rain over a vast region including the Bahamas, Cuba, and Hispaniola. This system, which has been rather difficult to forecast in terms of track and intensity, is expected to continue moving generally WNW over the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days.

Over the central open waters of the Atlantic, Tropical Storm GASTON continues to be well-organized while strengthening, with high probability of becoming a hurricane yet again.

Elsewhere there is a tropical wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico coming overland in Texas and Louisiana , which is generating copiousrain over a regions that is still reeling from recent extreme rain events and  disastrous flooding.  To round things up, there is another tropical wave moving toward the Carolinas’ coastal region.

GOES WEST infrared satellite image of 27 August 2016 showing Hurricane LESTER and Tropical Storm MADELINE MOVING WESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF mEXICO
GOES WEST infrared satellite image of 27 August 2016 showing Hurricane LESTER and Tropical Storm MADELINE moving westward off the Pacific coast of Mexico

On the eastern Pacific side of the Americas there is a strengthening Hurricane LESTER some 1500 km west of Acapulco, Mexico, while farther to the west Tropical Storm MADELINE is strengthening and moving in the general direction of Hawaii, 1800 km away.

Infrared satellite view of Hurricane LESTER located 1500 kilometers west of Acapulco, Mexico
Infrared satellite view of Hurricane LESTER located 1500 kilometers west of Acapulco, Mexico

Watching all of this cyclonic and stormy weather activity, we are reminded to remain alert, be prepared. MITIGATE!

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Could that be Ana out there?

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There has been so much foul weather and storms since the start of the year that most have failed to take notice that silently, almost stealthily, the ‘official’ start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season has crept closer and closer, to the point that it may even get an early start.

GOES satellite image [NOAA] of 6 May 2015 showing a disturbed weather system, which may become the first tropical cyclone of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season
GOES satellite image [NOAA] of 6 May 2015 showing a disturbed weather system, which may become the first tropical cyclone of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season
A large area of low pressure and disturbed weather has moved over the Bahamas in the past couple of days and it is now located off the east Florida coast, getting more organized and looking cyclonic even as it tracks north by northeast in a mostly unfavorable ocean-atmosphere environment. This system is being investigated and followed by NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center, which give it a 60% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 24 – 48 hours.  Should this come to pass this would become ANA the  first named-storm of the year, marking an early start for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Even if this system becomes nothing more than a large blob of stormy weather, it will generate an impact in the form of surge, wave action, rip currents, beach erosion, rain and gusty winds along the Atlantic coastal region in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas over the next 2 -3 days. All interests along this region must remain alert and prepared.

Infrared satellite image [NOAA] of 6 May 2015 showing Cyclone NOUL approaching the Philippines and Taiwan in the northwest Pacific ocean.
Infrared satellite image [NOAA] of 6 May 2015 showing Cyclone NOUL approaching the Philippines and Taiwan in the northwest Pacific ocean.
Elsewhere nearing the northwest Pacific, perhaps the most active basin for cyclogenesis in the world, and aiming for the Philippines and Taiwan, there is a strengthening Cyclone NOUL which may become a major hurricane in the next 48 – 72 hours as it gets closer to land.

Projected five-day track for cyclone NOUL [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]
Projected five-day track for cyclone NOUL [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]
A train of tropical waves and stormy weather cells has continued to develop off the coast of Panama – Central America and Southern Mexico, in a pattern that has been prevalent in that region over the last 3 -4 years.

GOES satellite infrared image of 6 May 2015 showing cells of stormy weather over the eastern Pacific
GOES satellite infrared image of 6 May 2015 showing cells of stormy weather over the eastern Pacific

As the tilt of the Earth’s axis continues to bring the northern hemisphere more and more under the direct line of the Sun overhead, we are bound to see and increment in tropical cyclone activity north of the equator.