Tag Archives: Atlantic Ocean

Dangerous Hurricane IRMA is heading toward our neck-of-the-woods!

Infrared GOES satellite view of 27 August 2017 showing Harvey over Texas, and a few tropical waves and other potential future tropical cyclones over the northern Atlantic basin. One of these tropical waves in particular, the one just emerging over the east Atlantic in this image, was the actual ‘seed’ that generated Hurricane IRMA.

Eight days ago, on 27 August 2017,  just as we watched the catastrophe of Hurricane HARVEY unfolding in Texas, a strong tropical wave originally formed near the head of the Nile River in eastern Africa fed by moisture from the Indian Ocean, emerged over the waters of the East Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands already exhibiting cyclonic tendencies. At the time I submitted this particular system warranted our attention and close monitoring by all hurricane-vulnerable interests around the Atlantic basin.

Infrared GOES EAST satellite image (NOAA) of Monday 4 September 2017 showing a strengthening Hurricane IRMA over the central Atlantic, as well as tropical waves chasing it for the east , and another potentially cyclonic disturbance in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

As of today Monday 4 September 2017, LABOR DAY!, after having traveled more than 9,000 km this system is major Hurricane IRMA over the Central Atlantic moving toward the Lesser Antilles and possibly the USA coastal region.

Visible light satellite image (Courtesy of NASA) of 4 September 2017 showing major Hurricane IRMA, as a well organized, symmetrical, compact tropical cyclone, with a clearly defined eye as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.

Major Hurricane IRMA looks quiet organized this morning of Monday 4 September 2017, LABOR DAY!, with a distinct central eye, a round and symmetric shape, and dense bands of rain and thunderstorms.

Projected five-day track for Hurricane IRMA issues by the National Hurricane Center during its 0500 advisory on Monday 4 September 2017

The forecast track by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has shifted somewhat southward for the next 3 – 5 days bringing it closer to the Antilles. Florida remains within the ‘cone of uncertainty’ this far out, so this is the time to review your emergency plans. Regarding IRMA’s projected track over coming days it is important to note that there are other tracks developed by various agencies, which vary from that posted by the NHC. For example, the track projected by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory shows a more northerly route than that of the NHC, which shifts the cone of uncertainty more toward mainland Florida and our neck-of-the-woods here in southeastern Florida. This discrepancies between projected tracks illustrate the difficulty in predicting where a hurricane may actually go, and the fact that  the longer the forecast goes into the future in term of how many days it covers the larger the uncertainty is.

Projected five-day track for Hurricane IRMA developed by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory as of 4 September 2017. Notice the slight differences with the track from the NHC posted above.

The important thing is to be aware that hurricane forecasting is not an exact science, and despite all the satellite tools, hurricane hunter data provided by airplanes flying into and around the storm, and the years of experience and expertise of forecasters at the NHC,  it is just not possible to exactly predict where a hurricane will make landfall. Consequently the best approach for those residing in vulnerable communities is to monitor the advisories regularly and closely, and to pay attention to instructions from local emergency management officials.

So, get ready. Be prepared. MITIGATE! Also, keep an eye on the strong tropical waves chasing after IRMA over the Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa and inland over Equatorial Africa. The entire system is loaded with ‘seeds’ for potential cyclonic activity.

25 July 2017: Six tropical cyclones active in the Pacific

A burst of cyclonic activity at two extremes over the vastness of the Pacific ocean in recent days has generated the six named tropical cyclones we see this Tuesday 25 July 2017!

Infrared GOES satellite image of 25 July 2017 showing Hurricanes HILARY and IRWIN, and Tropical Storm GREG off the Pacific coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm GREG, a strengthening and about to become major Hurricane HILARY, and an also strengthening Hurricane IRWIN are active, and moving away from land, off the Pacific coast of Mexico over the northern East Pacific. This makes it a total of nine named tropical cyclones  in the course of ten weeks in this quite active sub-basin for cyclogenesis.

Infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 25 July 2017 showing Typhoon NORU, Tropical Storm SONCA, Tropical depression KULAP, and a possible tropical cyclone from Tropical Wave 99W moving toward the Philippines

Also on this day, more than 12,000  kilometers to the west, over the northwest Pacific, we see a strengthening Typhoon NORU and a decaying Tropical Depression KULAP to the west of Japan, a strong tropical wave designated as ‘Invest 99W’ by NOAA approaching the Philippines, and some 3.000 kilometers farther to the west Tropical Storm SONCA making landfall in Vietnam.

Quite a spectacle indeed, six named tropical cyclones and a possible seventh, all simultaneously active over the northern Pacific Ocean.

Closer to our neck-of-the-woods here in Florida, and the Gulf and Atlantic coastal regions the tropics are somewhat calm. There have been one off-season named tropical cyclone, ARLENE, in April, and three named storms since the ‘official’ start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, including short-lived Tropical Storm DON, which perished over the southeastern Caribbean just last week.

So, busy there, relatively quiet here, however we should keep in mind this is the time of the year when the northern tropics get busy with cyclonic activity. Get ready! Be prepared! MITIGATE!