Tag Archives: Atlantic

Cyclogenesis, Featured, Hurricanes, Science, Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Tropical Wave, Weather

2017 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON IS 43% DONE!

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On this Saturday 19 August we are eleven weeks and two days into the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which means the ‘official’ Atlantic season is now 43.4% complete. Technically this means we have fourteen weeks and five days left in the season, unless Mother Nature decides to do something different.

More important than how much time is left for the official 2017 Atlantic hurricane season to be over, is the fact that we are approaching what historically  has been the peak of the Atlantic season, the first half of September.

Projected track for Tropical Storm HARVEY, the 8th named tropical cyclone of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, projected track (courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Lab)

The Atlantic has been busy with tropical cyclones so far in 2017, with eight named storms so far; Tropical Storm HARVEY, now in the east-central Caribbean and moving in the general direction of Belize and the Yucatan, is the 8th named tropical cyclone in 2017 in the Atlantic basin.

GOES East infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 08/19/2017 showing tropical storm HARVEY in the Caribbean and several tropical waves following behind all the way to the coast of equatorial Africa

In what could be a possible sign of things to come during the approaching peak of the season, there are several tropical waves and areas of disturbed weather following behind HARVEY to the northeast of Puerto Rico and along ‘hurricane alley’ all the way to the eastern Atlantic waters off the coast of equatorial Africa south of the Cape Verde Islands, which could be seeds for potential cyclogenesis in the basin. A possible contributing factor to such potential cyclonic activity could be the rather warm surface waters along ‘Hurricane Alley’, in the Caribbean and the Gulf and other areas of the Atlantic basin.

Image of 08/18/2017 showing rather warm surface waters of the Atlantic, which are reaching 30 Celsius in some areas, mainly along ‘Hurricane Alley’, in the Caribbean and near Florida and the Bahamas, which are an important contributing factor to potential cyclonic activity

On the other side of the continent, over the eastern waters of the north Pacific, the 2017 hurricane season that officially started on 15 May has also been a busy one so far, with eleven named tropical cyclones in 13 weeks. The latest tropical cyclone there is Tropical Storm KENNETH now moving NNW and away from land.

GOES West infrared image (NOAA) of 19 August 2017 showing Tropical Storm KENNETH moving away from land over tye eastern north Pacific off the coast of Mexico

All interest affected by cyclonic activity generated in the Atlantic basin and in the eastern north Pacific sub-basin must pay attention. Get ready. Be prepared. Remain alert. MITIGATE!

Cyclogenesis, Featured, Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Tropical Wave, Typhoon

Hurricane Alley is active in the Atlantic!

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Tropical cyclone activity continues in the Pacific Ocean. Today 17 August there are two strong, and strengthening, typhoons GONI and ATSANI in the far northwestern Pacific aiming in the general direction of Taiwan and Southern Japan. This raises  the possibility that a region that has been battered continuously in 2015, as recently as a couple of weeks ago, may be in for another strong impact over the next few days.

Mosaic of infrared satellite images of 17 August 2015 showing Tropical depression ELEVEN over the eastern Pacific, and typhoons GONI and ATSANI over the far northwestern Pacific
Mosaic of infrared satellite images of 17 August 2015 showing Tropical depression ELEVEN over the eastern Pacific, and typhoons GONI and ATSANI over the far northwestern Pacific

Also in the Pacific, but in its eastern confines there is  Tropical depression ELEVEN some 1,000 kilometers west of the peninsula of Baja California in Mexico.

Worthy of notice today as well is strong tropical wave moving westward along Hurricane Alley in the Atlantic, some 1000 kilometers southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, which is showing signs of getting organized and perhaps developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 – 72 hours. Could this be the genesis of DANNY, the fourth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Mosaic of infrared satellite images of 17 August 2015 showing a strong tropical wave moivng along 'Hurricane Alley' some 1000 kilometers southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, which is showing sign of potential cyclonic activity
Mosaic of infrared satellite images of 17 August 2015 showing a strong tropical wave moivng along ‘Hurricane Alley’ some 1000 kilometers southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, which is showing sign of potential cyclonic activity

Despite an early start of the 2015 season, the Atlantic basin has remained rather quite under the influence of a strengthening El Niño off the Pacific coast of South America. Today, however, in addition to this tropical wave moving west along Hurricane Alley toward the Lesser Antilles, there is a train of tropical waves over equatorial Africa progressing toward the eastern Atlantic that may be the seeds for future cyclonic activity, just as we approach the historical peak of the annual Atlantic hurricane season.

Only time will tell i we are witnessing the gestation of DANNY over the Atlantic, or if any of the tropical waves riding behind will develop into a tropical cyclone, but in the meantime all interest in the Caribbean, the Gulf, and in Florida will do well to pay attention, remain alert, be prepared, and continue to practice mitigation!