The northern hemisphere tropics are seeing plenty of cyclonic activity on this Friday 21 August 2015.
In the Atlantic basin there is Hurricane DANNY, the first hurricane and fourth-named storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, riding ‘hurricane alley’ moving WNW in the general direction of the Virgin Island, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola beyond that. There is also a disturbance around a low pressure area in the vicinity of Bermuda, which is being investigated by the National Hurricane Center for signs of potential cyclonic development
Over the Pacific basin strong twin typhoons GONI now moving between the Philippines and Taiwan before an expected turn toward southern Japan, and ATSANI approaching southern Japan and beginning to also turn toward the north.
Also in the Pacific there are twin tropical depressions THREE and FOUR in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands.
Except for DANNY and GONI none of the other active cyclones pose any danger to land for now.
Stored heat in the tropical northern oceans is quite high now, so one important contributor to cyclogenesis is present waiting for other triggers that may generate future tropical cyclones as we reach the historical peaks of hurricane seasons in these basins.
12:00 NOON UPDATE
The 11:00 A.M. National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory brings important new information: (a) Hurricane DANNY is now a category 2 tropical cyclone in the Safir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, packing maximum sustained winds of 170 kph; (b) a new and large tropical wave is emerging over the eastern Atlantic waters south of the Cape Verde Islands, which warrants further investigation and close monitoring; (c) Over the eastern Pacific a new low pressure disturbance off the coast of Mexico is also being investigated by the NHC.
It was it the low to mid 40s [degrees Farenheit] early this morning of Sunday 2 November 2014, and much colder in central and northern Florida. Could this be a sign that winter is approaching? For some in the South and other places in the U.S.A. with snow on the ground and freezing wind-chills WINTER is already here.
Despite these signs of the approaching change in seasons tropical cyclone activity is present today at both ends of the northern Pacific Ocean. Ten thousand kilometers apart Tropical Storm VANCE over the eastern Pacific and Typhoon NURI over the northwestern Pacific reminds us of just how active the northern Pacific basin has been so far in 2014, in terms of cyclonic activity.
Projected track for tropical cyclone VANCE [courtesy of the U.S. Navy Research Laboratory] as of 1 November 2014
Tropical storm VANCE is strengthening, and may become a hurricane over the next 12 – 24 hours, as it begins to change its course toward an eventual turn toward the NE in the general direction of Cabo San Lucas in the Baja California peninsula and Mazatlan. VANCE is the 20th named storm of what has been a record-breaking East Pacific hurricane season in 2014.
Typhoon NURI brushed past Guam a couple of days ago, and it is now a strong category 3 typhoon that is continuing to strengthen as it tracks into a favorable ocean-atmospheric environment and continues to change course toward the waters off eastern Japan.
As the years comes to an end, it will be interesting to look back and take count of what has transpired in terms of cyclonic activity in 2014. There have been some interesting events that will be worth examining in greater detail. As I write this two recent tropical cyclones come to mind because of their longevity. One is tropical storm ANA, which tracked by the islands of Hawaii to then veer North and NE before being ‘picked-up’ by a system that carried it all the way back to the mainland of Canada and the U.S.A. northwest eventually affecting the U.S.A. all the way to the mid-west more than two weeks later. A similar story was Hurricane Gonzalo, which was generated over the west-central Atlantic near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, hit Bermuda and continued toward extreme eastern Canada and eventually mainland Europe, where it continue on an eastern track until it caused extreme rains and flooding in Greece more than two weeks later. It will be interesting to analyze what contributing factors made both ANA and GONZALO last so long, travel so far north and then east, and affect such a wide region.