Disturbed weather is everywhere. A huge storm, now affecting fourteen states across the south-central USA, has been moving eastward with damaging winds, possible tornadoes, severe lightning, hail, and heavy rains.
On the other side of the planet in the Bay of Bengal, a large and strengthening Tropical Storm TWO is moving generally north toward Bangladesh. Flooding is expected in the low-laying coastal regions of Bangladesh, and possibly northeastern India and northwestern Burma. There is also a large cell of disturbed weather over the South China Sea, between the Philippines and Vietnam, which is showing some cyclonic tendencies meriting investigation and close monitoring.
A large region from Southern Mexico to Panama and waters of the eastern east Pacific has been under a conglomerate of stormy weather cells, which have been causing extreme rain, severe lightning, and instances of flooding throughout the area for the past few days. This has brought much-needed rain to alleviate drought conditions in Nicaragua and other Central American countries, but at the price of damaging flash floods and winds.
Hurricane alley just north of the equator is filling up with storms and disturbed weather cells, generated by tropical waves emerging from equatorial Africa, all the way from eastern Atlantic waters to the Caribbean.
It is clear we need to be prepared and remain alert. MITIGATE!
The tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean has strengthened, as had been discussed in this blog, and gotten better organized during the night to become Tropical Depression #19 of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. In the early morning hours on 21 October 2010 this cyclone has been moving in a complex environment and its track had varied considerably over the last 24 hours; where the system was initially moving north by northeast to then turn toward the east, it is now heading south and beginning to turn toward the southwest. (Click of the following link to see TD #19 in motion: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html) The models predict completion a full 180 degree turn during the day today so that it will eventually be moving toward the northwest and the Yucatan peninsula. Belize and Quintana Roo, Mexico should monitor this tropical cyclone closely. The environment in wich TD #19 is evolving appear favorable for further development, so it is probable that this system may become a tropical storm in the next 12 – 24 hours and the 17th named tropical cyclone of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
Also today, 21 October 2010, over the South China Sea a very large Typhoon MEGI continues to move generally north toward mainland China with sustained winds of 105 – 110 mph. This typhoon at one point had a diameter in excess of 1,000 miles virtually covering most of the South China Sea; even now as it has weakened some it still reaches from the Philippines to Taiwan and China.
The projected track is still showing Typhoon Megi aiming for landfall somewhere near Shantou, although some “wobble” in the track is still in the projected path over the next 24 – 36 hours. To see Typhoon Megi in movement please click on the link that follows: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/flash-avn.html
Moving east from Typhoon Megi’s current location, all the way to the Indian Ocean, and more precisely the Bay of Bengal we have Tropical Storm GIRI moving generally toward the northeast aiming for Burma and Cambodia. This storm was until recently just an area of low pressure, which in the past few hours strengthened to tropical storm force becoming Giri.