Tag Archives: East Atlantic

June 12, 2015: It is Carlos, the Caribbean, the Gulf, and floods in Nicaragua!

There is plenty of disturbed weather near our neck-of-the woods here if our Florida paradise!

Infrared GOEST-EAST satellie [NOAA] image of 12 June showing Tropical Storm CARLOS almost stationary and strengthening to the southwest of Acapulco, Mexico
Infrared GOEST-EAST satellite [NOAA] image of 12 June showing Tropical Storm CARLOS almost stationary and strengthening to the southwest of Acapulco, Mexico

Today, Friday 12 June 2015, marks the first four weeks of the ‘official’ 2015 East Pacific Hurricane Season, which is off to a fast start with three named storm already. The latest of these storms, Tropical Storm CARLOS is almost stationary some 200 kilometers southwest of Acapulco, Mexico over an area of warm surface waters and a favorable ocean-atmosphere environment that may  lead to further strengthening of this tropical cyclone.

Tropical storm CARLOS tracks as of 12 June [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]
Tropical storm CARLOS tracks as of 12 June [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]

Opposite T.S. Carlos off the eastern coast of the state of Quintana Roo, Mexico  on the Yucatan peninsula, there is an area of low pressure and an active cell of stormy weather over the northwestern Caribbean.

Infrared GOEST-EAST Satellite image [NOAA} showing various weather disturbances over the Gulf of Mexico, the northwestern Caribbean, the offshore Pacific waters off Central America, and northern South America, and 'Hurricane alley'
Infrared GOEST-EAST Satellite image [NOAA} showing various weather disturbances over the Gulf of Mexico, the northwestern Caribbean, the offshore Pacific waters off Central America, and northern South America, and ‘Hurricane alley’

Just to the north of that disturbance, over the central Gulf of Mexico, there is a large ‘glob’ of stormy weather that is already generating copious rain over a wide area.

Looking south, over Central America, the off-shore waters of the Eastern Pacific, the central Caribbean, and the northern regions of South America over Colombia, Venezuela and Guyana, there are plenty of systems that have prevailed for some time now, fueling rainy and stormy weather over a large area.

The aggregation of all of these elements of weather has already  had adverse consequences over the region extending from central/southern Mexico, through Central America and Panama, to northern South America.

This prevailing and current weather pattern over this region [Caribbean and Gulf activity], which is really a continuation, a repeat if you will, of what we have seen in recent years and most especially in 2014 when the East Pacific hurricane season generated  20 named tropical cyclones, surpassing the 18 generated in 2013, has had particularly damaging consequences in Nicaragua where extreme rain events over most of the country including over Managua, the capital city, where more than 200 mm of rain fell there yesterday over a period of 6 hours, leading to numerous instances of flash floods, some death by drowning, and extensive damage to homes and infrastructure. Emergency management authorities have declared an emergency  and have evacuated hundreds of families in Managua and in other communities.

Photo showing flood waters rushing down a causeway in Managua, Nicaragua after 200 mm of rain fell in less than six hours between 11 and 12 June 2015
Photo showing flood waters rushing down a causeway in Managua, Nicaragua after 200 mm of rain fell in less than six hours between 11 and 12 June 2015

There is no question, but that all interests in the region will need to watch unfolding events closely,  but as El Niño continues to develop off the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador prevailing wind currents are causing tropical waves along ‘Hurricane Alley’ to traverse over northern South America and Panama into the Eastern Pacific where they are fueling the kinds of disturbed weather we have seen over the past few weeks, and potentially future cyclonic activity as well.

It is clear that there may be plenty of  this kind of activity in the  northern tropics over coming months, consequently all interests in Nicaragua, or Mexico, or in the rest of Central America, and in the Caribbean and especially here in Florida must remain alert, be prepared and continue to mitigate!

Two for the season: Hurricane Blanca is here!

The 2015 East Pacific hurricane season is off with a bang: two hurricanes in less than three weeks since it ‘officially’ started on 15 May.

Historically the East Pacific sub-basin has been a region of active cyclogenesis, where 58 tropical cyclones were generated over the past four years, 20 of them in 2014.

GOES WEST infrared satellite image [courtesy of NOAA] of 3 June showing Hurricane BLANCA and Tropical Storm ANDRES off the coast of Mexico
GOES WEST infrared satellite image [courtesy of NOAA] of 3 June showing Hurricane BLANCA and Tropical Storm ANDRES off the coast of Mexico
It would appear the 2015 season may be a continuation of this pattern of activity. Today, Wednesday 3 June, we find that Tropical Depression #2 strengthened rapidly during the night and it is now Hurricane BLANCA, the second named tropical cyclone of a season that is barely 19 days old. Farther west there is ANDRES now downgraded to tropical storm strength.

Projected track for Hurricane BLANCA [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]
Projected track for Hurricane BLANCA [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]
Hurricane BLANCA is moving generally NNW in a favorable ocean-atmosphere environment with good possibility of strengthening to major hurricane intensity in the next 24-48 hours as it aims for Baja California Sur in Mexico.

To the south and southeast of BLANCA there are numerous cells of stormy weather off the coast of Central America and Panama, and farther to the east there are tropical waves, rain cells and other disturbed weather over northern South America and far over the Atlantic along ‘Hurricane Alley’, the Eastern Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands and over equatorial Africa. So there is plenty of fuel for future potential cyclonic development in the Eastern Pacific. We will have to keep an eye of what happens in  this region.

GOES EAST infrared satellite image [courtesy of NOAA] of 3 June showing Hurricane BLANCA, TROPICAL WAVES AND OTHER DISTURBED WEATHER CELLS OFF THE COASTAL OF pANAMA AND cENTRAL aMERICA AND IN THE cENTRAL cARIBBEAN
GOES EAST infrared satellite image [courtesy of NOAA] of 3 June showing Hurricane BLANCA, tropical waves and other disturbed weather off the coast of Central America, Panama and in the central Caribbean
Elsewhere, there is a large cell of stormy weather over the Central Caribbean that is already affecting Cuba and the Florida Straights with plenty of rain.  Farther east over the Eastern Atlantic and Equatorial Africa the ‘tropical wave assembly line’ is already active.

Infrared satellite image of 3 June showing tropical waves riding along 'Hurricane Alley' and over Equatorial Africa
Infrared satellite image of 3 June showing tropical waves riding along ‘Hurricane Alley’ and over Equatorial Africa

There is also a large and still disorganized, but menacing looking, region of disturbed weather over the Central Pacific ocean, which merits observation and follow-up over the next day or so as it is showing some signs of potential cyclonic development.

Infrared satellite image of 3 June showing a still disorganized but large and menacing rtegion of disturbed weather over the Central Pacific ocean, which is being investigated for signs of potential cyclonic development
Infrared satellite image of 3 June showing a still disorganized but large and menacing region of disturbed weather over the Central Pacific ocean, which is being investigated for signs of potential cyclonic development

This is what is happening today in the northern tropics worldwide. There are several months left while the Sun is over the northern hemisphere and the world oceans store all of that heat energy, which may contribute to cyclogenesis. On the other hand there are a developing El Niño over the Pacific,  global warming and other potential triggers and contributors to cyclogenesis to contend with.

So, to all interests in vulnerable island nations and coastal regions worldwide I say, be prepared, remain alert, MITIGATE!