Tag Archives: East Pacific Hurricane Season

HURRICANE SEASON 2018: THE ATLANTIC WAKES UP!

Earlier this year predictions called for a rather active 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season, but as an incipient ENSO began to show off the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador and other contributing factors became evasive, predictions were changed to a “somewhat below average” to “average” season, whatever “average” means.

The reality of tropical cyclone activity in 2018 in the Earth’s northern hemisphere is that while the Northwest Pacific has already seen 23 named-storms, some of them ferocious category 5 cyclones, and the East Pacific is already up to 15 named-storm, the Atlantic basin has been somewhat quiet with  barely six named-storm by early September until FLORENCE, number 7, appeared over the eastern Atlantic but soon encountered an adverse ocean-atmosphere environment and wind shear, which weakened considerably putting in doubt its future progress.

Full Disk – Clean Longwave Window – IR

As of today all of that has changed, FLORENCE is regaining strength and may possibly become a major hurricane as it continues to move toward the Carolinas on the east coast, while two other tropical storms HELENE and ISAAC have formed over the far eastern Atlantic. At the same time, a low pressure system moves over Bermuda ahead of Florence, and a menacing looking tropical wave over equatorial Africa continues moving westward toward the Atlantic just south of the Cape Verde islands, and a large cell of disturbed weather is on the march in the Caribbean. So, as of this Saturday 8 September we have reached nine named-storm and there is plenty of fuel for additional cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin.

Projected track of FLORENCE as of 8 September 2018

All interests in and around the north Atlantic basin must monitor these named tropical cyclones closely over the next few days, and be on the alert for other potential cyclonic activity in days to come. Be prepared! MITIGATE!

Projected Hurricane OLIVIA as of 8 September 2018 has it aiming for Hawaii

Elsewhere, hurricane OLIVIA appears to be aiming for Hawaii, which is still recovering from the brush with LANE just a couple of weeks ago. Farther to the west, Typhoon MANGKHUT is moving over the northwest Pacific in the general direction of the northern Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan. This is a region that has already seen several landfalling tropical cyclones causing plenty of damage and human suffering.

2014 East Pacific Hurricane Season: 20 and counting!

Water-vapor satellite image [NOAA] of 30 October 2014 showing Tropical storm VANCE off the Pacific coast of Mexico and other disturbed weather near Central America and Panama
Water-vapor satellite image [NOAA] of 30 October 2014 showing Tropical storm VANCE off the Pacific coast of Mexico and other disturbed weather near Central America and Panama

The eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico and Central America continues generating tropical  cyclones in what may become a season for the record books.

Visible-light satellite image [NASA] of 30 October 2014 showing Tropical storm VANCE as it moves pff the Pacific coast of centarl Mexico
Visible-light satellite image [NASA] of 30 October 2014 showing Tropical storm VANCE as it moves off the Pacific coast of central Mexico

Just today, Thursday 30 October 2014, tropical depression #21 reached tropical storm strength and took the name of VANCE. This storm is moving generally northwest into a favorable environment off the Pacific coast of Mexico where it is forecast to become a hurricane in the next couple of days or so. Meanwhile the eastern range of the sub-basin all the way to the  Gulf of Panama is populated by an aggregation of disturbed weather cells feeding into the region of the East Pacific ocean where we have seen twenty named storms so far this year.

Projected track for Tropical storm VANCE [courtesy of U.S. Navy Research Laboratory] as of 30 October 2014
Projected track for Tropical storm VANCE [courtesy of U.S. Navy Research Laboratory] as of 30 October 2014

On the other side of the landmass, over the Atlantic basin we have only had eight named storms in what so far has been a below-average 2014 hurricane season, the last one being tropical storm HANNAH, which made landfall in Nicaragua a few days ago.