Tropical cyclone activity continues unabated in the northern hemisphere. More than sixty named-storms have been generated worldwide so far in 2018 in the northern hemisphere, from the Atlantic, the Pacific (east, central, and northwest basins), to the Indian ocean.
Currently super-typhoon TRAMI continues to move toward Taiwan, while other large tropical waves and disturbed weather cells are active over the Northwest Pacific.
In the East Pacific basin hurricane ROSA, the 18th named storm of the 2018 season is active off the coast of Mexico. Other potentially cyclonic systems are on the move off the coast of Central America and Panama.
In the Atlantic, KIRK has regenerated into a tropical storm to the east of Barbados, while LESLIE now a tropical depression is approaching the region of the Azores Islands. Another disturbed weather system is off the coast of the Carolinas to the south of Cape Hatteras, which warrants monitoring. Other tropical waves extend from ‘Hurricane Alley’ to Equatorial Africa.
Following the Autumn equinox the Sun above is now to the south of the equator increasing the heat content of the world’s oceans. As a result, we are beginning to detect some potential for cyclonic development in the southern hemisphere. One such system is now being monitored near Australia’s northeast coast.
There is plenty of fuel for continued tropical cyclone generation worldwide this Wednesday 26 September 2018. Vulnerable communities everywhere will do well to remain alert. Be prepared! MITIGATE!
Eight days ago, on 27 August 2017, just as we watched the catastrophe of Hurricane HARVEY unfolding in Texas, a strong tropical wave originally formed near the head of the Nile River in eastern Africa fed by moisture from the Indian Ocean, emerged over the waters of the East Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands already exhibiting cyclonic tendencies. At the time I submitted this particular system warranted our attention and close monitoring by all hurricane-vulnerable interests around the Atlantic basin.
As of today Monday 4 September 2017, LABOR DAY!, after having traveled more than 9,000 km this system is major Hurricane IRMA over the Central Atlantic moving toward the Lesser Antilles and possibly the USA coastal region.
Major Hurricane IRMA looks quiet organized this morning of Monday 4 September 2017, LABOR DAY!, with a distinct central eye, a round and symmetric shape, and dense bands of rain and thunderstorms.
The forecast track by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has shifted somewhat southward for the next 3 – 5 days bringing it closer to the Antilles. Florida remains within the ‘cone of uncertainty’ this far out, so this is the time to review your emergency plans. Regarding IRMA’s projected track over coming days it is important to note that there are other tracks developed by various agencies, which vary from that posted by the NHC. For example, the track projected by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory shows a more northerly route than that of the NHC, which shifts the cone of uncertainty more toward mainland Florida and our neck-of-the-woods here in southeastern Florida. This discrepancies between projected tracks illustrate the difficulty in predicting where a hurricane may actually go, and the fact that the longer the forecast goes into the future in term of how many days it covers the larger the uncertainty is.
The important thing is to be aware that hurricane forecasting is not an exact science, and despite all the satellite tools, hurricane hunter data provided by airplanes flying into and around the storm, and the years of experience and expertise of forecasters at the NHC, it is just not possible to exactly predict where a hurricane will make landfall. Consequently the best approach for those residing in vulnerable communities is to monitor the advisories regularly and closely, and to pay attention to instructions from local emergency management officials.
So, get ready. Be prepared. MITIGATE! Also, keep an eye on the strong tropical waves chasing after IRMA over the Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa and inland over Equatorial Africa. The entire system is loaded with ‘seeds’ for potential cyclonic activity.