Tag Archives: Gulf of Mexico


Satellite image (NOAA) of the northern Atlantic basin showing plenty of tropical cyclone activity this Wednesday 12 September 2018

What a spectacle we are having as the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season has entered its peak phase right on target, based on the historical record.  Three named tropical cyclones, FLORENCE, HELENE, and ISAAC,  plus two other potentially cyclonic systems are all active in the northern Atlantic basin this Wednesday 12 September 2018 while the tropical-wave assembly line over Equatorial Africa keeps churning new cyclonic seeds, sending them westward toward the Cape Verde Islands region and ‘Hurricane Alley’ beyond.

Satellite image (NOAA GOES) taken in visible light the afternoon of Tuesday 11 September 2018, shows a well shaped clear-eyed Hurricane FLORENCE as it moved toward mainland USA over Atlantic waters

A still strengthening Hurricane FLORENCE is the most dangerous of these systems as it continues to move toward the Carolinas and a potential landfall projected somewhere south of the Cape Hatteras region. Florence, which is already some 700 km in diameter, is slowing down as it approaches land and growing more dangerous, as it grows in size, generates more rain, and pushes a increasingly larger mound of water toward what could be record amounts of storm surge along the coastal region.

Projected track of Hurricane FLORENCE as of 12 September 2018

A massive evacuation effort from the coastal regions of South and North Carolina, as well as parts of Virginia, in underway already to protect life. Projected massive levels of storm surge, extreme rain, and  wind, will affect a large region well inland of the coastline from Georgia to New Jersey and points beyond. The potential for damage to property and infrastructure, and risk to human life and the environment is quite large as this dangerous storm comes over land this week.

Projected rainfall from Hurricane FLORENCE over the next few days illustrates the potential for extreme rain, and potential flooding

HELENE, a weakening hurricane is making a turn toward the north and eventually the northeast over open waters posing no risk to land. An also weakening Tropical Storm ISAAC continues to move toward the Windward Islands and the Caribbean where it may generate heavy rains and possible flooding. Isaac warrants close monitoring as it enters the warn waters and favorable Caribbean environment.

The disturbed weather system over the southern Gulf of Mexico, just off the Yucatan peninsula is generating heavy rain and thunderstorms over a vast region from Northern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Honduras to the central Gulf of Mexico. All interests around the Gulf need to monitor this one closely for potential further development in the next day or so.

With so much current cyclonic activity over the entire north Atlantic basin, and plenty of fuel for additional cyclonic activity coming from weather systems and tropical waves over Equatorial Africa we must all remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!

Tropical Storm BRET makes it official!

Just as forecast in our previous posting, the storm at the western end of Hurricane Alley is now a tropical cyclone named Tropical Storm BRET, which makes the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially open, that is if you are willing to consider Tropical Storm ARLENE (April 2017) and ‘off-season’ tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

Projected track for Tropical Storm BRET as of Monday 19 June 2017 (Courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory)

Tropical Storm BRET appears to be headed for Trinidad as it skirts the coast of Venezuela and the southeastern Caribbean beyond where the environment will not favor further development of this system.

GOES East satellite image (NOAA) of Monday 19 June 2017 showing Tropical Storm BRET, the first named storm of the ‘official’ 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Farther west and north in the central Gulf of Mexico the other storm we’ve been watching continues to strengthen and appears of the brink of becoming a tropical cyclones as it moves northward toward Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Meanwhile in the eastern Atlantic. tropical waves continue to emerge from the assembly line over equatorial Africa. There appears to be plenty of ‘fuel’ for potential cyclonic activity in coming days. Get ready. Remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!