Tag Archives: Hurricane alley

TWIN STORMS IN THE PACIFIC WHILE THE ATLANTIC STIRS

Some interesting cyclonic events are taking place in the northern tropics on this Friday 28 July 2017.

Infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 28 July 2017 showing tropical storms HILARY and IRWIN over the Pacific Ocean waters between Mexico and Hawaii, following respective tracks that may cause them to interact in some fashion

A set of twin tropical cyclones, HILARY and IRWIN (See our posting of 25 July), appear to be in a collision course midway between Mexico and Hawaii in the Pacific. Now downgraded to tropical storm strength Hilary is moving WNW while nearby to its southwest Irwin is tracking NNW putting these tropical cyclones on a course for potential interaction over the next day or so. Both Hilary and Irwin are packing maximum sustained winds of 110-115 kph posing no threat to land.

Infrared satellite image (JTWC) of 28 July 2017 showing a strong typhoon NESAT aiming for Taiwan over the Philippines Sea

Farther to the west, over the Philippines sea a strengthening Typhoon NESAT is starting to brush past the Northern Philippines as it aims for Taiwan. At the same time, Typhoon NORU is over the northwestern Pacific making a turn toward the NNW to the east of Japan.  So, this makes for four active named-tropical cyclones over the northern Pacific basin, in addition to several areas of disturbed weather and tropical waves throughout the basin that may be seeds for further cyclonic activity in coming days.

Visible light satellite image (NOAA) of 28 July 2017 showing a large tropical wave (INVEST 97L) mowing generally westward along Hurricane Alley

Of interest to us here  in South Florida, and to others throughout the Caribbean, Central America, the Gulf and the Atlantic seaboard of the U.S.A., is a tropical wave located approximately 1000 kilometers southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that has been designated as INVEST 97L by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center while monitoring it for possible cyclonic development over coming days.

Infrared satellite image (NOAA) showing the Eastern Atlantic and Equatorial Africa region where a train of tropical waves and disturbed weather cells moves westward toward Hurricane Alley. This includes a tropical wave 1000 kilometers SW of the Cape Verde Islands designated as INVEST 97L, which is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center

Farther to the east over waters of the Eastern Atlantic and Equatorial Africa there is a train of tropical waves, including one rather  large and strong storm, moving westward toward Hurricane Alley. There is plenty of seeds that may fuel cyclogenesis in that region over the next few days. All interests in our neck-of-the-woods will do well to pay attention, remain alert, and be prepared! MITIGATE!

FIVE AND COUNTING

Visible light satellite image (NOAA) of 9 July showing a strengthening Hurricane EUGENE off the Pacific coast of Mexico

A strengthening Hurricane EUGENE. the fifth-named tropical cyclone of the 2017 eastern north Pacific hurricane season is active off the western coast of Mexico, moving NW parallel to the coastline.

Projected track of Hurricane EUGENE as of 9 July 2017 (Courtesy of the U.S. Navy Research Lab.)

EUGENE is the fifth tropical cyclone to generate in this sub-basin over the last seven weeks. The probability of other tropical cyclones developing soon in this sub-basin appears strong, given the continued presence of a conglomerate of tropical waves and disturbed weather cells in the region extending from the Gulf of Panama to the Pacific waters off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico, which is in part being fed by tropical waves generated over the eastern Atlantic traveling along ‘Hurricane alley’ and crossing over northern Venezuela and Colombia into the Pacific.

GOES WEST infrared satellite image of 9 July 2017 showing Hurricane EUGENE off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Notice the conglomerate of disturbed weather cells and tropical waves ranging from the Gulf of Panama to waters off the coast of southern Mexico.

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season, which is forecast to be busier than average by NOAA, has produced an early ‘off-season’ tropical storm ARLENE in April, and two other named storms, BRET and Cindy, since the official start of the season on 1 June. Tropical Depression #4 generated recently over the western end of ‘Hurricane Alley’, but dissipated over the weekend before amounting to much of anything.  However, the tropical wave ‘assembly line’ over Equatorial Africa and the region over the Eastern Atlantic continue to be populated by stormy weather cells and tropical waves, which provide a continuous source of ‘fuel’ for possible future cyclogenesis over the increasingly warmer surface waters of the Atlantic.

Infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 9 July 2017 showing several tropical waves over the eastern Atlantic waters south of the Cape Verde Islands, and over Equatorial Africa.

While we watch and wait for what may develop, we must remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!