Today 21 September 2010 the worldwide tropics and extra-tropical regions are populated by a veritable menagerie of tropical cyclones. Hurricane IGOR continues to move north near Newfoundland, Canada with sustained winds of 80+ mph, it would appear Igor is planning a visit to the Arctic regions to the west of Greenland in what might be a ‘first’ since records have been kept. In the mid-north Atlantic near the Azores the remnants of Tropical Storm JULIA continue to generate rain as the system moves toward the northeast. To the west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving north by northwest there is tropical storm LISA with sustained 45 mph winds, which is forecast to continue moving generally toward the northwest over the open waters of the Atlantic.
A lot closer to our neck-of-the-woods a huge tropical wave more than 1,100 miles long straddles over the Lesser Antilles as it moves westward into the eastern Caribbean. This system is generating copious rain from northern Venezuela to Hispaniola. Given its size and favorable atmospheric-ocean environment ahead, this system should be closely monitored by interests in the Caribbean, Central America, Mexico, and beyond that in Florida and the Gulf. This tropical wave has been growing better organized and stronger during the day today.
To balance things out with all the ongoing activity in the larger Atlantic basin, there is Tropical Storm GEORGETTE in the eastern Pacific south of Baja California, tracking generally north toward La Paz. At the other extreme, in the western Pacific, in a region that has been quite active this season there is Tropical Storm MALAKAS tracking toward the northwest and projected to re-curb north and then toward the northeast over the open waters of the northwestern Pacific ocean.
Moving “in the sidelines” no fewer than eight tropical waves or cells of disturbed weather span from the west coast of equatorial Africa to the east coast and on to the shores of Indonesia in the Indian ocean; any of these tropical waves, given the right combination of factors and a favorable atmospheric environment, may have the capability for generating a tropical cyclone over the next couple of weeks. Certainly food for thought as the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season continues.
As the Earth’s axis tilts while orbiting the Sun, we are approaching the date when the Sun will be directly above the equator and one of two times during the year when day and night will have equal duration. This time, which will take place this coming Wednesday, September 23, 2010 at 11:09 EST, marks the autumnal equinox and the start of the fall season of 2010.
So, we are seeing the last days of summer 2010 and as we take a look at Earth’s oceans and atmosphere we see plenty of actual and potential tropical cyclone activity worldwide. Most of the activity is in the larger Atlantic basin where we have hurricane IGOR and tropical storm JULIA moving toward the southeast over open ocean waters, and a large tropical wave just west of the Cape Verde Islands that appears on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone, plus several other waves in the Caribbean, near the windward Islands and the eastern Atlantic. There is also a typhoon and a tropical depression in the western Pacific and another tropical wave in the eastern Pacific. Additionally there are several tropical waves and cells of stormy weather over equatorial Africa and the Indian Ocean all moving westward toward the still quite warm waters of the Atlantic.
2010 is shaping-up to be somewhat different than your typical year with respect to tropical cyclone activity. The eastern Pacific basin, which usually averages 50% – 60% more tropical cyclones than the greater Atlantic basin has been somewhat quiet so far, with only five named storms versus eleven already in the Atlantic. The central Pacific region has also been extremely quiet with no named storms so far in 2010. However the southern Pacific and Indian oceans have see plenty of activity so far. It is clear that several factors including the La Nina event now under way off the Pacific coast of Peru, the position of the Bermuda high and water temperatures over the Atlantic, the direction of the Julian-Madden oscillation and the water content in the atmosphere are all contributing to shaping up the 2010 worldwide hurricane season.
On a worldwide basis we continue to see high levels of moisture in the atmosphere particularly near the equator. In fact satellite observations today show large quantities of precipitable water in the atmosphere, which in some regions is up to 70-80 mm/hr. This high moisture content in the atmosphere creates an environment conducive to wet hurricanes, meaning storms that generate large amounts of rain regardless of the intensity of the cyclone itself. Recent reports from the passage of Hurricane Karl through the Yucatan peninsula as a category 1 hurricane refer to large amounts of intense rain, as the most damaging component of the storm. Other recent storms have also generated vast quantities of rain causing flash flooding and mudslides in affected communities.
Over in the Atlantic conditions appear favorable for continued tropical cyclone activity as the number of tropical waves riding along ‘Hurricane alley” and the ‘assembly line’ over equatorial Africa appears to have no end in sight at least for the next 2 – 3 weeks. Only time will show if all these waves are able to generate tropical cyclones, but for the time being all interests around the greater Atlantic basin, including island nations and countries bordering on the Caribbean and Gulf and USA Atlantic coastal regions must closely monitor all of this activity. We must all pay attention! Be prepared!! And above all always practice MITIGATION!!!