Tag Archives: Japan

HURRICANE SEASON 2018: THE ATLANTIC WAKES UP!

Earlier this year predictions called for a rather active 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season, but as an incipient ENSO began to show off the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador and other contributing factors became evasive, predictions were changed to a “somewhat below average” to “average” season, whatever “average” means.

The reality of tropical cyclone activity in 2018 in the Earth’s northern hemisphere is that while the Northwest Pacific has already seen 23 named-storms, some of them ferocious category 5 cyclones, and the East Pacific is already up to 15 named-storm, the Atlantic basin has been somewhat quiet with  barely six named-storm by early September until FLORENCE, number 7, appeared over the eastern Atlantic but soon encountered an adverse ocean-atmosphere environment and wind shear, which weakened considerably putting in doubt its future progress.

Full Disk – Clean Longwave Window – IR

As of today all of that has changed, FLORENCE is regaining strength and may possibly become a major hurricane as it continues to move toward the Carolinas on the east coast, while two other tropical storms HELENE and ISAAC have formed over the far eastern Atlantic. At the same time, a low pressure system moves over Bermuda ahead of Florence, and a menacing looking tropical wave over equatorial Africa continues moving westward toward the Atlantic just south of the Cape Verde islands, and a large cell of disturbed weather is on the march in the Caribbean. So, as of this Saturday 8 September we have reached nine named-storm and there is plenty of fuel for additional cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin.

Projected track of FLORENCE as of 8 September 2018

All interests in and around the north Atlantic basin must monitor these named tropical cyclones closely over the next few days, and be on the alert for other potential cyclonic activity in days to come. Be prepared! MITIGATE!

Projected Hurricane OLIVIA as of 8 September 2018 has it aiming for Hawaii

Elsewhere, hurricane OLIVIA appears to be aiming for Hawaii, which is still recovering from the brush with LANE just a couple of weeks ago. Farther to the west, Typhoon MANGKHUT is moving over the northwest Pacific in the general direction of the northern Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan. This is a region that has already seen several landfalling tropical cyclones causing plenty of damage and human suffering.

25 July 2017: Six tropical cyclones active in the Pacific

A burst of cyclonic activity at two extremes over the vastness of the Pacific ocean in recent days has generated the six named tropical cyclones we see this Tuesday 25 July 2017!

Infrared GOES satellite image of 25 July 2017 showing Hurricanes HILARY and IRWIN, and Tropical Storm GREG off the Pacific coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm GREG, a strengthening and about to become major Hurricane HILARY, and an also strengthening Hurricane IRWIN are active, and moving away from land, off the Pacific coast of Mexico over the northern East Pacific. This makes it a total of nine named tropical cyclones  in the course of ten weeks in this quite active sub-basin for cyclogenesis.

Infrared satellite image (NOAA) of 25 July 2017 showing Typhoon NORU, Tropical Storm SONCA, Tropical depression KULAP, and a possible tropical cyclone from Tropical Wave 99W moving toward the Philippines

Also on this day, more than 12,000  kilometers to the west, over the northwest Pacific, we see a strengthening Typhoon NORU and a decaying Tropical Depression KULAP to the west of Japan, a strong tropical wave designated as ‘Invest 99W’ by NOAA approaching the Philippines, and some 3.000 kilometers farther to the west Tropical Storm SONCA making landfall in Vietnam.

Quite a spectacle indeed, six named tropical cyclones and a possible seventh, all simultaneously active over the northern Pacific Ocean.

Closer to our neck-of-the-woods here in Florida, and the Gulf and Atlantic coastal regions the tropics are somewhat calm. There have been one off-season named tropical cyclone, ARLENE, in April, and three named storms since the ‘official’ start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, including short-lived Tropical Storm DON, which perished over the southeastern Caribbean just last week.

So, busy there, relatively quiet here, however we should keep in mind this is the time of the year when the northern tropics get busy with cyclonic activity. Get ready! Be prepared! MITIGATE!