It started as a system of low pressure off the coast of Georgia and Northern Florida just a few days ago. This disturbance then started tracking SSE slowly veering south and then southwest aiming for central and southern Florida while generating plenty of rain and thunderstorms over most of Florida.
The system became a tropical depression as it did a 180 and began tracking northward as it reached tropical storm strength, to eventually become Hurricane ARTHUR, the first hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
While we have had some cyclonic activity generated in this region in recent years I can’t recall a hurricane forming where this one did, but I haven’t gone back to check the historical record going back to 1851. I will do so and report back.
All interests along the USA Atlantic seaboard all the way up to the northeastern USA, including those area still undergoing post-Sandy recovery work, need to be alert and prepared, and monitor this one closely.
Remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!
UPDATE AS OF 1530 07/04/2014
Hurricane ARTHUR still a category 1 tropical cyclone is some 240 km east of Long Island, NY tracking NE at a rather quick 40 kph (24 mph). Because of its rotation storm surge should no create too much of a hazard for the coastal regions of NY and NJ, and beyond. The forecast calls for most of rain impact to be over the Canadian provinces.
Tropical Depression #4 in the eastern East Pacific, off the Pacific coast of Mexico and a couple of low pressure systems, one just 370 km (230 miles) east of Jacksonville, Florida are signs that something may be ‘afoot’ in our neck-of-the-woods.
TD #4 is near Acapulco, Mexico in the same region that has recently generated other tropical activity during the 2014 East Pacific Hurricane Season, which officially activated on 15 May 2014. The system which is moving generally WNW at 26 kph (16 mph) is being ‘chased’ by a large low pressure cell near the coast that may be showing some cyclonic tendencies. While both these east Pacific storms are moving away fro the mainland, vast amounts of rain and potential flooding is possible along the coastal region in central/southern Mexico.
Closer to us, here in Florida, there is a low pressure system some 370 km (230 miles) east of Jacksonville that is moving generally southward paralleling the coastline. This system is tracking in a favorable ocean-atmosphere environment and showing some potential for cyclonic development in the course of the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is investigating this system.
Zooming out to look at the larger North Atlantic basin and parts of the Pacific we can see the outline of the ‘belt of tropical activity’gradually getting more defined and gradually shifting northward. It is clear we must monitor all of these systems closely, while remaining prepared and alert. Practice MITIGATION!