Tag Archives: Northern tropics

The Eastern North Pacific: It is boiling out there!

The Sun above will soon reach the limit of the northern tropics marking the advent of summer 2012 in the northern hemisphere, and the ocean-atmosphere below are already showing the results of all the additional solar energy being absorbed by way of large areas of disturbed weather, storms, increased rain, warmer sea surface waters, and other signs that the heat exchange process is actively underway.

Three ocean basins in particular, have been showing increased signs of weather instability as we approach the change in seasons, the central/northeastern Indian Ocean, the Northwestern Pacific, and of more interest to us in Florida because of its proximity: the Easter North Pacific basin.

In a pattern that has become prevalent over the past 2-3 years, the region ranging from northern South America, mainly Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador to Panama, Central America, Southern Mexico and a vast expanse of the eastern Pacific Ocean adjacent to these coastlines, has seen a nearly continuous transit of tropical waves coming in from the Atlantic, and the generation of tropical waves and cells of disturbed weather over Pacific Ocean waters offshore Central America and southern Mexico. In 2012 this pattern of tropical activity became noticeable toward the end of March and even more so in April and May, and it has already generated tropical storm Aletta that was active from 14 May through the 19th, and major hurricane Cat. 3 Bud from 21 May through the 26th of the  same month.

Satellite image of 26 May 2012 showing some of the tropical activity that has been prevalent in the Eastern North Pacific sub-basin over the past couple of months and for the last 3+ years around this time of the year
Another satellite image of the same region shown on the image to the left except 17 days later on 11 June 2012 showing a couple of tropical waves with potential for further development

So far during the month of June 2012 the Eastern North Pacific basin appears to have entered a new phase of even higher activity. Sea surface waters in some areas of the basin have been above 30 degrees Celsius, tropical wave generation has been abundant leading to numerous instances of extreme rain and thunderstorms events in Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Southern Mexico, with some flash flooding events as well. As of 11 June there were two areas of disturbed weather to the west of Nicaragua and Guatemala that exhibited some potentially cyclonic characteristics warranting close monitoring.

Map of sea surface temperatures based on satellite observations on 5 June 2012 showing a large region of waters at or above 30 Celsius off the coast Sea surface temperature,Typhoon Guchol, Philippines,Taiwan,Asia monsoon,Tropical storm Alberto, Tropical storm Beryl,Caribbean,Tropical wave assembly line,Hurricane alley,CAPE of southern Mexico and Central America

Elsewhere in the northern tropics, tropical storm GUCHOL in the northwestern Pacific is moving west by northwest in the general direction of the Philippines and Taiwan, and the Indian ocean, the Indian subcontinent and southeast Asia have been experiencing large amounts of rain as the onset of the Asia Monsoon takes hold of that vast region.

Satellite image of 12 June 2012 showing the Eastern Atlantic sub-basin and the western part of Equatorial Africa where some minor disturbances and tropical waves are active

The Atlantic basin has been a different story in 2012. On the one hand the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season got an early start when trow tropical storm Alberto and Beryl developed to the west of central Florida and southeast of Georgia, with Beryl actually moving westward and coming over land before veering northward and eventually making a full 180 degree turn toward the northeast. Since then the overall basin has been rather quiet with respect to tropical cyclone activity, although the Gulf and the northern Caribbean have seen plenty of disturbed, stormy weather over the course of several weeks. Looking farther east toward the eastern Atlantic and equatorial Africa the combined tropical wave assembly line – hurricane alley have remain mostly quiet despite sporadic flare-ups of storm cells overland and along the ‘alley’.  It should be noted that the northern Atlantic’s surface waters remain much cooler than in previous years at this time, with a rather large region extending well south of the Cape Verde Islands where sea surface temperatures are in the low to mid 20 Celsius; this can be observed in the image below:

Satellite image based map of sea surface temperatures for the north Atlantic on 11 June 2012 showing much cooler temperatures than in previous years around the same dates

 

13 June 2012: Latest News

GOES satellite image for the aviation industry in the morning of 14 June 2012 showing Tropical Storm CARLOTA near the coast of Southern Mexico

Quite interesting! Just as I was about to publish this brief post the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory for this sub-basin indicating tropical storm CARLOTTA, the 3rd named storm of the eastern Pacific 2012 hurricane season, has developed near the coast of southern Mexico. There are now two active tropical cyclones in the larger Pacific Ocean basin!

Mosaic of satellite images showing the North Pacific Ocean basin on 14 June 2012 where two tropical cyclones GUCHOL and CARLOTA are currently active

Also in the Eastern North Pacific sub-basin, there is an area of low pressure to the west of Tropical Storm CARLOTTA’s current location that may warrant close monitoring as it exhibits some characteristics that might lead to further development.

15 June 2012: Latest News

GOES satellite image of tropical storm CARLOTTA as it neared hurricane strength in the early morning hours of 15 June 2012 off the Pacific coast of southern Mexico

CARLOTTA is now a category 1 hurricane moving northwest with maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the Pacific coast of Mexico. Per the latest discussion emanating from the National Hurricane Center a Hurricane Hunter airplane was in route to get a fix on the latest intensity and tracking data, but based on previous advisories CARLOTTA appears to be continuing to intensify, while its track has shifted closer to the Mexican coast where it might make landfall some time in the morning of Saturday 16 June. Various atmospheric features are at play to the north and west of the system’s current location, which may alter its course over the next 24-36 hours. This is definitely one to monitor closely by all communities along the Mexican Pacific coastal region.


Tropical Storm ALBERTO Inaugurates 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

GOES satellite image of 20 May 2012 showing water vapor in the atmosphere and Tropical Storm ALBERTO the first named-storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season just east of Jacksonville Florida  On Sunday 20 May, 2012 in the early evening Tropical Storm ALBERTO, the first-named tropical cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is located to the northeast of Jacksonville, Florida and South of Charleston, South Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 74 kph moving to the southwest. The storm is moving in an environment with low wind shear and it is forecast to make a 180 turn and head northeast within the next 24 hours, which will place on a track paralleling the coastline of the Carolinas. Alberto marks an early start for the Atlantic hurricane season that officially was set to start this coming 1 June 2012.

Win shear is rather weak over the area where Tropical Storm Alberto was located in the early evening of 20 May 2012

Farther south and east the Caribbean and west-central Atlantic are seeing quite a bit of tropical activity in the form of rain showers and thunderstorms that extend over Central America, the Antilles, Northern South America and a good portion of the eastern Pacific.

Color-enhanced infrared satellite image of 20 May 2012 showing several tropical waves over Equatorial Africa moving westward toward the eastern Atlantic and 'hurricane alley'

Still farther east, over the eastern Atlantic and western Equatorial Africa several tropical waves are present moving westward toward ‘Hurricane Alley‘. It would appear the ‘Tropical Wave Assembly Line‘ will continue to be fed from the Indian Ocean where several large cells of disturbed weather are aiming for the mainland of Africa.

Color-enhanced infrared satellite image of 20 May 2012 showing several cells of disturbed weather over the Northern Indian Ocean and eastern Equatorial Africa that may eventually feed into the 'tropical wave assembly line' and even 'hurricane aley' in the Atlantic
Color-enhanced infrared satellite image of 20 May 2012 showing a large cell of disturbed weather over the Northwestern Pacific moving toward the Philippines and showing potential for cyclonic development over the next day or so

Over the northern tropical Pacific there is a large cell of low pressure and stormy weather moving toward the Philippines over the northwestern Pacific, while off the western coast of Mexico to the south of Acapulco the persistent cell of low pressure that was chasing after now-defunct tropical storm Aletta, is still around showing some signs of organization.

Color-enhance infrared satellite image of 20 May 2012 showing a tropical wave around an area of low pressure over the eastern North Pacific off the coast of Mexico to the south of Acapulco

In summary, the northern tropics appear to be quite active with ‘official’ 2012 hurricane seasons already under way in both the eastern North Pacific and the northern Atlantic, and plenty of disturbed weather and tropical activity over the various basins and sub-basins where cyclogenesis typically takes place. It seems it is just a matter of time until we see the first tropical cyclones of 2012 over the Central Atlantic and the Northwestern Atlantic, as well as the Northern Indian Ocean.

All interests in and around the various oceanic basins where tropical cyclones generate must remain prepared, paying attention to tropical developments as they are announced and monitored, and above all be ready to implement or deploy those mitigation measures that have been designed and installed with the objective of reducing the potential for damage to buildings and structures from the impact of tropical cyclones. These will be the times to emphasize the protection of life and property. In this regard we must all remain conscious of the fact that regardless of how active or inactive the annual season is forecast to be in a given basin,  just one tropical cyclone is all that may be needed to cause loss of life, damage to property and untold human suffering!