Just two days ago from this site mitigat.com asked “Does Mother Nature Know: that hurricane seasons are here?”, while pointing out that ‘Tropical depression ONE’ was on the move off the Pacific coast of Mexico.
Tropical depression ONE is now an intensifying Category 4 (Saffir- Simpson hurricane wind scale) hurricane AMANDA, the first-named tropical cyclone of the 2014 East Pacific hurricane season, moving generally NW some 1,000 kilometers southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
The forecast (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/251458.shtml) calls for AMANDA to intensify some more as it continues to move in a favorable ocean-atmosphere environment, but as its tracks turns gradually toward the NNW and then north progressing toward a NNE – NE track in the next 48 – 72 hours it will enter cooler surface waters and also encounter wind shear that will weaken it. Despite this projections, all interests in the Pacific coastal region of Mexico from the Baja California peninsula to Acapulco and points south should monitor this tropical cyclone closely in days to come.
Of interest for this region is a large area to the southeast of AMANDA’s current position reaching to Panama, which is populated by numerous disturbed weather cells and may present some potential for cyclonic development in the wake of AMANDA. Something to be monitored closely by coastal interests from Mexico to Central America and Panama for sure.
Closer to our neck-of-the woods and of interest to coastal residents along the Gulf coast and the eastern USA seaboard, the Atlantic basin north of the equator remains mostly quiet today Sunday, 25 May 2014, but the southern region of ‘Hurricane Alley’ shows a long train of smaller storm cells marching westward while larger tropical waves continue to form over Equatorial Africa. These are certainly signs of the progressively warmer tropics over a region of particular significance to USA interests.
Elsewhere, several stormy weather cells are approaching the Philippines Sea menacing a region that has seen its share of damaging impacts in 2013 and previous years. Continuing farther west the Bay of Bengal in the northern Indian Ocean is under a massive storm cell with potential for cyclonic development.
These are the signs of the times. The northern tropics are warming up and Mother Nature is starting to stir things up. All interests along tropical and subtropical coastal regions in the northern hemisphere must be alert, remain prepared and engage in the practice of MITIGATION! Keeping in mind that storm surge is much more damaging by far than wind, and that breaking waves riding above the onrushing surge waters also pack significant energy as they impact coastal structures and facilities.