Tag Archives: South Carolina

FLORENCE AND COMPANY ARE ON THE MOVE!

Satellite image (NOAA) of the northern Atlantic basin showing plenty of tropical cyclone activity this Wednesday 12 September 2018

What a spectacle we are having as the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season has entered its peak phase right on target, based on the historical record.  Three named tropical cyclones, FLORENCE, HELENE, and ISAAC,  plus two other potentially cyclonic systems are all active in the northern Atlantic basin this Wednesday 12 September 2018 while the tropical-wave assembly line over Equatorial Africa keeps churning new cyclonic seeds, sending them westward toward the Cape Verde Islands region and ‘Hurricane Alley’ beyond.

Satellite image (NOAA GOES) taken in visible light the afternoon of Tuesday 11 September 2018, shows a well shaped clear-eyed Hurricane FLORENCE as it moved toward mainland USA over Atlantic waters

A still strengthening Hurricane FLORENCE is the most dangerous of these systems as it continues to move toward the Carolinas and a potential landfall projected somewhere south of the Cape Hatteras region. Florence, which is already some 700 km in diameter, is slowing down as it approaches land and growing more dangerous, as it grows in size, generates more rain, and pushes a increasingly larger mound of water toward what could be record amounts of storm surge along the coastal region.

Projected track of Hurricane FLORENCE as of 12 September 2018

A massive evacuation effort from the coastal regions of South and North Carolina, as well as parts of Virginia, in underway already to protect life. Projected massive levels of storm surge, extreme rain, and  wind, will affect a large region well inland of the coastline from Georgia to New Jersey and points beyond. The potential for damage to property and infrastructure, and risk to human life and the environment is quite large as this dangerous storm comes over land this week.

Projected rainfall from Hurricane FLORENCE over the next few days illustrates the potential for extreme rain, and potential flooding

HELENE, a weakening hurricane is making a turn toward the north and eventually the northeast over open waters posing no risk to land. An also weakening Tropical Storm ISAAC continues to move toward the Windward Islands and the Caribbean where it may generate heavy rains and possible flooding. Isaac warrants close monitoring as it enters the warn waters and favorable Caribbean environment.

The disturbed weather system over the southern Gulf of Mexico, just off the Yucatan peninsula is generating heavy rain and thunderstorms over a vast region from Northern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Honduras to the central Gulf of Mexico. All interests around the Gulf need to monitor this one closely for potential further development in the next day or so.

With so much current cyclonic activity over the entire north Atlantic basin, and plenty of fuel for additional cyclonic activity coming from weather systems and tropical waves over Equatorial Africa we must all remain alert. Be prepared. MITIGATE!

Could that be Ana out there?

There has been so much foul weather and storms since the start of the year that most have failed to take notice that silently, almost stealthily, the ‘official’ start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season has crept closer and closer, to the point that it may even get an early start.

GOES satellite image [NOAA] of 6 May 2015 showing a disturbed weather system, which may become the first tropical cyclone of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season
GOES satellite image [NOAA] of 6 May 2015 showing a disturbed weather system, which may become the first tropical cyclone of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season
A large area of low pressure and disturbed weather has moved over the Bahamas in the past couple of days and it is now located off the east Florida coast, getting more organized and looking cyclonic even as it tracks north by northeast in a mostly unfavorable ocean-atmosphere environment. This system is being investigated and followed by NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center, which give it a 60% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 24 – 48 hours.  Should this come to pass this would become ANA the  first named-storm of the year, marking an early start for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Even if this system becomes nothing more than a large blob of stormy weather, it will generate an impact in the form of surge, wave action, rip currents, beach erosion, rain and gusty winds along the Atlantic coastal region in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas over the next 2 -3 days. All interests along this region must remain alert and prepared.

Infrared satellite image [NOAA] of 6 May 2015 showing Cyclone NOUL approaching the Philippines and Taiwan in the northwest Pacific ocean.
Infrared satellite image [NOAA] of 6 May 2015 showing Cyclone NOUL approaching the Philippines and Taiwan in the northwest Pacific ocean.
Elsewhere nearing the northwest Pacific, perhaps the most active basin for cyclogenesis in the world, and aiming for the Philippines and Taiwan, there is a strengthening Cyclone NOUL which may become a major hurricane in the next 48 – 72 hours as it gets closer to land.

Projected five-day track for cyclone NOUL [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]
Projected five-day track for cyclone NOUL [courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]
A train of tropical waves and stormy weather cells has continued to develop off the coast of Panama – Central America and Southern Mexico, in a pattern that has been prevalent in that region over the last 3 -4 years.

GOES satellite infrared image of 6 May 2015 showing cells of stormy weather over the eastern Pacific
GOES satellite infrared image of 6 May 2015 showing cells of stormy weather over the eastern Pacific

As the tilt of the Earth’s axis continues to bring the northern hemisphere more and more under the direct line of the Sun overhead, we are bound to see and increment in tropical cyclone activity north of the equator.