Tag Archives: the Bahamas

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH!

The Earth’s axis continues to tilt as we near the halfway point of the northern hemisphere’s spring, and as the Sun above moves toward the Tropic of Cancer the heat content of the ocean and surface water temperature steadily increase in the northern tropics. Together with this stage of the process of the seasons the factors that contribute to cyclogenesis, the formation of tropical cyclones, are falling into place and we are starting to have tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere.

The month of May started with a newly formed large tropical cyclone FANI in the Indian ocean moving in the Bay of Bengal, infamous for favoring large, wet, damaging, and deadly cyclones.

The path of cyclone FANI, which made landfall in Odisha State, northeastern India this Friday 3 May 2019 around 0930.

FANI became a category 5 (Saffir-Simpson intensity scale) super cyclone as it aimed for the northern reaches of the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone had sustained winds of 240 kph (150 mph), gusting to 300+ kph, and generated copious rain and massive storm surge as it made landfall in the northeastern coastal region of Odisha state in India, in the morning hours of Friday 3 May 2019, near Kalkata the capital. FANI has continue to weaken as it moves inland causing widespread flooding in India and Bangladesh.

Civil protection authorities in India and Bangladesh implemented massive evacuation from the coastal regions ahead of the cyclone, more than one million evacuees in India alone, and activated storms shelters throughout the area. Initial reports from the affected regions in India confirm seven deaths already, a toll which is expected to increase. Sad as the news is, it is clear that emergency precautions and advanced forecasting undertaking by the authorities and heeded by the population have been quite effective in protecting residents of the affected areas from this dangerous and powerful cyclone.

Elsewhere, a disturbed area of low pressure between Florida and the Bahamas showing some potential for cyclonic development has continued to move northwestward toward the USA coastline. This system has generated disturbed weather and plenty of rain over the Florida peninsula and the southeastern coastal region.

Low-pressure disturbed-weather system moving generally NW between the Bahamas and Florida is showing a low probability of cyclonic development, but meanwhile it has caused rain and disturbed weather over the Florida peninsula.

A look beyond the Eastern Atlantic over equatorial Africa is already showing some tropical-wave activity moving westward north of the equator. These may become seeds for potential cyclonic activity as they move over the already warm waters of the Eastern Atlantic.

Satellite image shows tropical waves and disturbed weather cells over Equatorial Africa and waters of the Eastern Atlantic moving westward onto the southern fringes of ‘Hurricane Alley’

The region over waters of the Eastern Pacific near Panama, northern South America and Central America, are already populated by numerous disturbed weather and storm cells that have been typical of this region around this time over the past few years. So the possibility for some development in this sub-basin cannot be ignored.

Note conglomerate of storm cells off the coast of Panama and Central America over eastern Pacific waters, as well as a large storm system moving off the coast of Mexico toward Hawaii and the central Pacific.

At the opposite end of the vast ocean, the Northwestern Pacific has been quite active recently with numerous stormy weather systems moving near the Philippines, Japan, and neighboring mainland.

A train of large storm cells moves westward over waters of the Pacific Ocean north of the Equator. Other large storm systems are on the move near the Philippines and Japan.

Meanwhile in the USA large storms are raging over Texas and neighboring states, and over the Ohio river valley and surrounding region. The combination of weather fronts, Jetstream paths, and the supply of warm moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, is clearly contributing to these storms that are generating floods, tornadoes and other damaging effects across vast regions of the country.

The pattern is clear, potential tropical cyclone activity continues to move toward the north coinciding with the approaching summer and the “official” start of 2019 hurricane season in the Pacific and the Atlantic.

Residents of these ‘vulnerable parts’ will do well to be ready, stay prepared, remain alert and MITIGATE!

16 October 2016: The northern tropics remain restless, watch out!

The Autumn equinox in the northern hemisphere has come and gone, and as the Sun marches south of the equator overhead the southern hemisphere tropics we have started to see tropical waves and storm cells flare-up on that half of the planet.

Soon the northern hemisphere hurricane, typhoon and cyclone seasons will start to wind down and cease menacing hundreds of million of residents of coastal regions and island nations in the Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian oceans.

We  in the northern hemisphere must however remain alert and be prepared, for the ‘official’ tropical cyclone seasons may end on fixed dates, but the reality is that Mother Nature will always do as she will!  Also, ocean heat content has continuously grown higher as every new year becomes the warmest of record or one of the warmest. So, conditions for tropical cyclone development have become earlier-happening, longer-lasting and wider-spread over time.

Infrared satellite image of 10 October 2016 showing various tropical waves, areas of disturbed weather, and Hurricane NICOLE over the larger north Atlantic basin
Infrared satellite image of 16 October 2016 showing various tropical waves, areas of disturbed weather, and Hurricane NICOLE over the larger north Atlantic basin

In fact, satellite imagery this morning brought pictures of a large tropical disturbance over the Bahamas looking suspiciously as if cyclonic development could be possible. This may already be affecting a wide region from Florida to the Carolinas, which were hit hard a few days ago by Hurricane MATTHEW, and also suffered a remote hit that coincided with King Tides from passage of Hurricane NICOLE at a distance.

Other satellite images of the north Atlantic basin show a tropical wave over the isthmus of Panama, another one in the middle of ‘hurricane alley’ and yet another one beginning to emerge over the eastern Atlantic from equatorial Africa, plus a nice one of Hurricane NICOLE still going strong over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Enhanced infrared satellite image of 16 October 2016 showing numerous tropical waves and storm cells reaching some 10,000 kilometers from Atlantic Waters to the Lake Victoria region in eastern Africa
Enhanced infrared satellite image of 16 October 2016 showing numerous tropical waves and storm cells reaching some 10,000 kilometers from Atlantic Waters to the Lake Victoria region in eastern Africa

Farther east from the eastern Atlantic waters, there remains a long train of tropical waves and storm cells over equatorial Africa reaching all the way to Lake Victoria and beyond. Plenty of fuel left for future cyclonic activity.

Enhanced infrared satellite image of 16 October 2016 over the Northwest Pacific showing typhoons SARIKA and HAIMA respectfully moving away from and approaching the Philippines!
Enhanced infrared satellite image of 16 October 2016 over the Northwest Pacific showing typhoons SARIKA and HAIMA respectfully moving away from and approaching the Philippines!

On the opposite side of the planet, near northwest Pacific waters there is typhoon SARIKA moving in the South China Sea toward another landwall after ravaging the Philippines, while to the east there is a strong typhoon HAIMA approaching the Philippines Sea and a possible double-whammy on that most cyclone-vulnerable country on Earth.

Life goes on, and this is the only planet we have for now, so it is prudent to pay attention, remain alert, and be prepared alway. MITIGATE!