There has been so much foul weather and storms since the start of the year that most have failed to take notice that silently, almost stealthily, the ‘official’ start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season has crept closer and closer, to the point that it may even get an early start.A large area of low pressure and disturbed weather has moved over the Bahamas in the past couple of days and it is now located off the east Florida coast, getting more organized and looking cyclonic even as it tracks north by northeast in a mostly unfavorable ocean-atmosphere environment. This system is being investigated and followed by NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center, which give it a 60% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 24 – 48 hours. Should this come to pass this would become ANA the first named-storm of the year, marking an early start for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Even if this system becomes nothing more than a large blob of stormy weather, it will generate an impact in the form of surge, wave action, rip currents, beach erosion, rain and gusty winds along the Atlantic coastal region in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas over the next 2 -3 days. All interests along this region must remain alert and prepared.Elsewhere nearing the northwest Pacific, perhaps the most active basin for cyclogenesis in the world, and aiming for the Philippines and Taiwan, there is a strengthening Cyclone NOUL which may become a major hurricane in the next 48 – 72 hours as it gets closer to land. A train of tropical waves and stormy weather cells has continued to develop off the coast of Panama – Central America and Southern Mexico, in a pattern that has been prevalent in that region over the last 3 -4 years.
As the tilt of the Earth’s axis continues to bring the northern hemisphere more and more under the direct line of the Sun overhead, we are bound to see and increment in tropical cyclone activity north of the equator.