ERIN: The 5th named storm of the season

Generating from a strong tropical wave emerging from Equatorial Africa over the Cape Verde Islands, Tropical Storm ERIN is now the 5th named tropical cyclone of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical storm ERIN is located to the west of the Cape Verde Islands oin the morning hours on 16 August 2013

As of this morning at 0500 EST ERIN was located at 16.3 N 30.5 W moving WNW at 25 kph with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph. Current guidance takes ERIN toward the open waters of the Atlantic and a somewhat adverse ocean-atmospheric environment.

Projected five-day track for tropical Storm ERIN as of 16 August at 0200: based on research by the U.S. Navy Research Laboratory and NOAA data

Currently it appears ERIN poses no threat to any landmass in the North Atlantic, but we still need to monitor the progress and development of this storm to see what may happen in the next several days.

Following in ERIN’s footsteps there is a large and rather strong tropical wave over Equatorial Africa, which is about to emerge over the warm waters of the eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands, and which is the lead of a train of several other tropical waves or cells of disturbed weather traversing the African continent in a pattern that is typical for this time of the year.

Infrared satellite image in the early hours of Friday 16 August showing the weather disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico, which is still generating copious rain far to the east over Cancun, Cozumel and the northeastern region of the Yucatan Peninsula

Closer to our neck-of-the-woods the disturbance that traversed the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from east to west on Thursday 15 August is now over the southern Gulf of Mexico moving WNW. The system is somewhat disorganized at present, but it is still generating copious rains on its eastern extreme over the northeastern region of the Yucatan as far back as Cancun and Cozumel. Although the system still has some probability for re-strengthening as it approached a second landfall in Mexico, local conditions do not appear too favorable for further development at this time.

While we continue to monitor Tropical Storm ERIN and the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, our attention needs to be on Equatorial Africa and the eastern Atlantic to see what may become of the several tropical waves and storm cells now moving westward.

Let us remain alert. Pay attention. Be prepared. MITIGATE!