09/12/2014: EDOUARD, ODILE and KALMAEGI etc.

Projected track for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (U.S. Navy Research Lab. per NOAA data) as on 09/12/2014

To mark what historically has been the peak of the Atlantic annual hurricane season Tropical Storm EDOUARD, the 5th named Atlantic tropical cyclone in 2014, is active in the central northern Atlantic moving generally NW. There are also a few other tropical waves and cells of disturbed weather over the basin.

Satellite image (NOAA) of 09/12/2014 for the aviation industry showing Tropiical Storm EDOUARD in the central Atlantic and a few other areas of interest throughout the basin

Over the east Pacific the 2014 hurricane season continues unabated  with the 15th named storm, ODILE, tracking parallel to the Pacific coast of Mexico near Puerto Vallarta. At the same  time tropical depression #16 continues to be active farther to the west and appears to be turning back toward the ENE and a possible encounter with ODILE.

Satellite image (NOAA) of 09/12/2014 for the aviation industry showing Tropical Storm ODILE off the Pacific coast of Mexico and tropical depression #16

Farther to the west over the northwest Pacific Tropical Storm KALMAEGI  is moving toward the Philippines over a region that has seen quite its share of tropical cyclone activity in 2014, and in previous years.

Projected track for Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (by U.S. Navy Research Lab. based on NOAA data) as of 09/12/2014

Despite what has been a rather active 2014 season in the East Pacific, tropical cyclone activity worldwide over the northern hemisphere has been somewhat below par so far this year, especially in the Atlantic basin. There is still time left in 2014 for additional cyclonic activity to take place in the norther hemisphere, but it makes me revisit my theory that perhaps the threshold for cyclogenesis is changing in response to global warming. As the atmosphere and oceans get warmer the contrast between the tropics and the polar regions has been decreasing, therefore thee need for corrective action to restore a balance has diminished and, with it, one contributing factor for tropical cyclone formation. In exchange we are seeing considerable precipitation and thunderstorm activity over vast regions in the northern hemisphere, which act as a relief valve for accumulated energy in the atmosphere-ocean environment.  Just a theory!